Spatial diffusion of the 2015–2016 Zika, dengue and chikungunya epidemics in Rio de Janeiro Municipality, Brazil

Abstract

Different countries, especially Brazil, that have faced recurrent dengue epidemics for decades and chikungunya epidemics since 2014, have had to restructure their health services to combat a triple epidemic of arboviruses – Zika, dengue and Chikungunya – transmitted by the same vector, mainly Aedes aegypti, in 2015–2016. Several efforts have been made to better understand these three arboviruses. Spatial analysis plays an important role in the knowledge of disease dynamics. The knowledge of the patterns of spatial diffusion of these three arboviruses during an epidemic can contribute to the planning of surveillance actions and control of these diseases. This study aimed to identify the spatial diffusion processes of these viruses in the context of the triple epidemic in 2015–2016 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Two study designs were used: cross-sectional and ecological. Sequential Kernel maps, nearest-neighbour ratios calculated cumulatively over time, Moran global autocorrelation correlograms, and local autocorrelation changes over time were used to identify spatial diffusion patterns. The results suggested an expansion diffusion pattern for the three arboviruses during 2015–2016 in Rio de Janeiro. These findings can be considered for more effective control measures and for new studies on the dynamics of these three arboviruses.

Spatiotemporal dynamics, risk areas and social determinants of dengue in Northeastern Brazil, 2014–2017: an ecological study

“…5 ). Our results are consistent with previous findings that dengue is spatially correlated with clusters [ 36 – 39 ]. It demonstrates the wide spatial spread of dengue and the exposure of a significant portion of the population in the Northeast Brazil.…”

The Socio-Spatial Determinants of COVID-19 Diffusion: The Impact of Globalisation, Settlement Characteristics and Population

“…The geographical concept of spatial diffusion is defined as the spread of a phenomenon across space (25), of which disease diffusion through interpersonal transmission is but one variant (24,26). Here, we investigate the role of globalisation, settlement and population characteristics as socio-spatial determinants of COVID-19 diffusion between countries as an outcome of transmission between individuals.…”

The Socio-Spatial Determinants of COVID-19 Diffusion: The Impact of Globalisation, Settlement Characteristics and Population

“…Infectious diseases diffuse over space and time through inherently geographical processes (24). The geographical concept of spatial diffusion is de ned as the spread of a phenomenon across space (25), of which disease diffusion through interpersonal transmission is but one variant (24,26). Here, we investigate the role of globalisation, settlement and population characteristics as socio-spatial determinants of COVID-19 diffusion between countries as an outcome of transmission between individuals.…”

“…In large and dense agglomerations the spreading occurs faster compared to small towns due to larger populations and more intensive human contact. As infectious diseases spread through the populations, different types of diffusion come into play, often in combination (26,28). Sirkeci and Yüceşahin (29) suggest that the spread of COVID-19 in March 2020 followed a relocation diffusion pattern (spreading between countries), with hierarchical diffusion being observed only in a few countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Italy among others.…”