Spatial distribution and risk factors for foot and mouth disease virus in Uganda: Opportunities for strategic surveillance

Munsey, Anna; Mwiine, Frank Norbert; Ochwo, Sylvester; Velazquez‐Salinas, Lauro; Ahmed, Zaheer; Maree, Francois Frederick; Rodrı́guez, Luis L.; Rieder, Elizabeth; Pérez, Andrés; VanderWaal, Kimberly

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104766

Cited by 28 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Studies in Chad, Niger and Uganda have shown that increased density of cattle and small ruminants is a risk factor of FMD spread (Munsey et al, 2019;Ouagal et al, 2018;Souley Kouato et al, 2018).…”

Section: Density Of Ruminant Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce‐data environments

Squarzoni-Diaw

Arsevska

Kalthoum³

et al. 2021

Transbound Emerg Dis

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This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic.Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown.The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be | 1967 SQUARZONI-DIAW et Al.

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Section: Density Of Ruminant Populationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce‐data environments

Squarzoni-Diaw

Arsevska

Kalthoum³

et al. 2021

Transbound Emerg Dis

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“…Due to the notable computational resources required by this analysis, we chose four factors to investigate: cattle density, human population density, geodesic distance to the nearest livestock market, and mean standard precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), which is an indicator of drought (Center for International Earth Science Information Network-Columbia University, 2017; Robinson et al, 2014;Vicente-Serrano, Beguería, López-Moreno, Angulo, et al, 2010). Previous studies have demonstrated an association between low rainfall and FMD, probably resulting from increased between-herd contacts as animals gather at communal drinking sites and communal pastures (Hamoonga et al, 2014;Muleme et al, 2012;Munsey et al, 2019). We also predicted that host density would facilitate spread, and therefore areas of high cattle density would be at higher risk.…”

Section: Phylogeographic Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because of the porous nature of borders in East Africa and frequent movement of animals across borders, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania are considered a collective high-risk area, therefore a regional approach is critical to understanding FMDV in this region (Di Nardo et al, 2011). Earlier studies have supported the occurrence of transboundary FMDV transmission in East Africa (Balinda et al, 2010;Duchatel et al, 2019;Munsey et al, 2019) and confirmed serotype O as the most prevalent serotype in this region (Ayelet et al, 2009;Kasambula et al, 2012;Mwiine et al, 2019;Wekesa et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phylogeographic analysis of foot‐and‐mouth disease virus serotype O dispersal and associated drivers in East Africa

et al. 2021

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The continued endemicity of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) in East Africa has significant implications for livestock production and poverty reduction, yet its complex epidemiology in endemic settings remains poorly understood. Identifying FMDV dispersal routes and drivers of transmission is key to improved control strategies. Environmental heterogeneity and anthropogenic drivers (e.g., demand for animal products) can impact viral spread by influencing host movements. Here, we utilized FMDV serotype O VP1 genetic sequences and corresponding spatiotemporal data in order to (i) infer the recent dispersal history, and (II) investigate the impact of external factors (cattle density, human population density, proximity to livestock markets, and drought) on dispersal velocity, location, and direction of FMDV serotype O in East Africa. We identified statistical evidence of long-distance transmission events, and we found that FMDV serotype O tends to remain circulating in areas of high cattle density, high human population density, and in close proximity to livestock markets. The latter two findings highlight the influence of anthropogenic factors on FMDV serotype O spread in this region. These findings contribute to the understanding of FMDV epidemiology in East Africa and can help guide improved control measures.

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“…Reports indicate that FMD clinical cases increased in Uganda during the 2000's relative to the 1990's (13). A recently risk analysis study showed the complexity involving the epidemiology of FMD in Uganda, being the proximity with international borders one of the most important factors associated with the circulation of FMDV in this country (14). Based on the sanitary conditions in east Africa, officially the export and import trade activities of livestock in Uganda is limited (1.5% all export values), but should be taken into account as a potential factor to favor the circulation of FMDV in the region, being Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan and Tanzania the major export markets (http://www.fao.org/3/ a-at589e.pdf).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Genetic Diversity of Circulating Foot and Mouth Disease Virus in Uganda Cross-Sectional Study During 2014–2017

et al. 2020

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Spatial distribution and risk factors for foot and mouth disease virus in Uganda: Opportunities for strategic surveillance

Cited by 28 publications

References 48 publications

Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce‐data environments

Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce‐data environments

Phylogeographic analysis of foot‐and‐mouth disease virus serotype O dispersal and associated drivers in East Africa

Genetic Diversity of Circulating Foot and Mouth Disease Virus in Uganda Cross-Sectional Study During 2014–2017

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