Spatial effects of tourism development on economic resilience: an empirical study of Wenchuan earthquake based on dynamic spatial Durbin model

Abstract

This paper highlights the importance of tourism spatial effects. Using the panel data of 135 Wenchuan earthquake-affected counties which from 2008 to 2018, this study employs the dynamic spatial Durbin model to examine the spatial effects of tourism development on post-disaster economic resilience and compares the difference of tourism-growth nexus between severe disaster-affected counties and general disaster-affected counties. The empirical results show that tourism development contributes to economic resilience for general disaster-affected counties, which supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis, whereas there is an inverted U-shape relationship for severe disaster-affected counties. Furthermore, the spatial spillover effects of tourism are insignificant. Plausible explanations of these results are discussed and policy suggestions are provided.

Post-disaster tourism development and scenario planning for the quality of life of residents

“…In recent years, a growing number of studies has focused on postdisaster tourism mainly from the following aspects: the assessment and prediction of tourism development (Qiu et al , 2021); the influence of postdisaster tourism development (Zhang and Cheng, 2019a, 2019b; Zhang, 2022); and tourism recovery strategies (Shao et al , 2021). …”

“…It influences the tourism industry, the environment and residents’ living conditions. Common indicators used to measure economic development include GDP; per capita GDP; investments in fixed assets; and employees in primary, secondary and tertiary industries (Patterson et al , 2004; Zhang, 2022; Zhang and Cheng, 2019a, 2019b; García, 2021).…”

“…For example, Zhang (2022) analyzed whether and how postearthquake tourism development influenced economic growth in 135 Wenchuan earthquake-hit counties from a spatial perspective and found that postdisaster tourism development could be linearly responsible for economic growth in general earthquake-stricken areas, whereas its impact exhibited an inverted U-shape for severely earthquake-stricken areas. Liu-Lastres et al (2020) studied the influence of postdisaster tourism development on destination livelihoods in Aceh, Indonesia and verified that postdisaster tourism increased community assets in the aftermath of a crisis.…”

“…However, from 2017 to 2019, tourism revenue fell to ¥2.75bn and the proportion of tourism to GDP decreased to 37.8% (Figure 3). Dramatic changes in tourism may have complicated effects on the local economy, ecological environment and residents' QoL (Zhang, 2022).…”

“…Referring to the studies of Wang et al (2020) and Zhang andCheng (2019a, 2019b), we used a behavior test to check the validity and reasonability of the SD in comparison with the actual and predictive data. Four variables, including the GDP, total population, tourist arrivals and tourism revenue (Susanty et al, 2021;Mai and Smith, 2018;Wang et al, 2020), were used to validate the model (Table 3).…”