Spatial-Explicit Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Based on Impact Chains. Findings from a Case Study in Burundi

Abstract

Climate change vulnerability assessments are an essential instrument to identify regions most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to determine appropriate adaptation measures. Vulnerability assessments directly support countries in developing adaptation plans and in identifying possible measures to reduce adverse consequences of changing climate conditions. Against this background, this paper describes a vulnerability assessment using an integrated and participatory approach that builds on standardized working steps of previously developed ‘Vulnerability Sourcebook’ guidelines. The backbone of this approach is impact chains as a conceptual model of cause–effect relationships as well as a structured selection of indicators according to the three main components of vulnerability, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach by reporting the results of a vulnerability assessment conducted in Burundi focusing on climate change impacts on water and soil resources. Our work covers two analysis scales: a national assessment with the aim to identify climate change ‘hotspot regions’ through vulnerability mapping; and a local assessment aiming at identifying local-specific drivers of vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures. Referring to this vulnerability assessment in Burundi, we discuss the potentials and constraints of the approach. We stress the need to involve stakeholders in every step of the assessment and to communicate limitations and uncertainties of the applied methods, indicators and maps in order to increase the comprehension of the approach and the acceptance of the results by different stakeholders. The study proved the practical usability of the approach at the national level by the selection of three particularly vulnerable areas. The results at a local scale supported the identification of adaption measures through intensive engagement of local rural populations.

Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy

“…The methodology for the vulnerability and risk assessment is based on the concept of the impact chain (IC), which was first published by [28], and then "catalyzed" by the German corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) in the Vulnerability Sourcebook [33]. Since then, ICs have been increasingly used as a climate risk assessment method in Europe and worldwide, regionally and locally, both for research purposes and decisionmaking [26,[34][35][36][37]. Thus, the methodology can be used both for the high-level identification of key risks and a more in-depth analysis of specific risks and adaptation strategies.…”

“…IC, as a conceptual framework, allows integrating quantitative and qualitative data from various disciplines (e.g., geography, climate modelling, stakeholders' knowledge), methodological approaches, and sources [34], and follows a participatory approach to facilitate a better understanding and cross-cutting dialogue. The GIZ methodology [25] proposes eight main steps that outline IC and risk assessment preparation, identifying first the initial situation in terms of climate impacts and risks to brainstorm adaptation measures based on the outcomes of the methodology.…”

Assessing Flood Risk Dynamics in Data-Scarce Environments—Experiences From Combining Impact Chains With Bayesian Network Analysis in the Lower Mono River Basin, Benin

“…Despite their focus on inter-driver relations and specific risks, impact chains have mainly been used for static index-based vulnerability and risk assessments that, per definition, do not enable the analysis of how different drivers of risk influence each other. For example, the methodology has been applied to assess the vulnerability of smallholders pertaining to water supply in Bolivia (Zebisch et al, 2021), vulnerability to climate change and adaptation impacts in Pakistan (Zebisch et al, 2021), as well as to identify priority areas for adaptation to climatic impacts on agriculture in Burundi (Schneiderbauer et al, 2020). Nevertheless, approaches to using the impact chain methodology as a starting point for more dynamic risk assessments are still lacking.…”

Identifying Climate Change Vulnerability Based on Land Cover Indicators: A Case Study in Surabaya, Indonesia

“…A system is considered vulnerable when it is exposed and shows sensitivity to climatic changes with low adaptive capacity. Hence, assessment of vulnerability to climate change is very important to identify hot spots of climate change that require urgent attention to lessen the climate change impacts for sustainable development (Schneiderbauer et al, 2020).…”

“…Identifying the right indicators for each component of the vulnerability function is an important step in the development process of climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies. Many studies identified the assessment indicators from the perspective of the disaster impacts of climate change (Ludena et al, 2015;Nguyen et al, 2016;Schneiderbauer et al, 2020;UN-Habitat, 2019), while only a few did from the potential causes (Delaney et al, 2021). United Nations Habitat manual, for example, developed the current disaster risk profile (risk index) to map the most vulnerable areas.…”