Spatial features and new trends in thermal conditions of soil and depth of its seasonal thawing in the permafrost zone

Sherstyukov, Artem; Sherstyukov, B. G.

doi:10.3103/s1068373915020016

Cited by 22 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…Monthly soil temperature under natural cover at different depths down to 320 cm from three weather stations over a period of 1966-2015 was also analyzed. A detailed description of soil temperature data sets and their quality control methods may be found in Sherstyukov and Sherstyukov (2015). Active layer thickness (ALT), used for the analysis, was estimated with polynomial interpolation of soil temperatures at depth (Streletskiy et al, 2015).…”

Section: Aufeis and Glaciersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In less severe winters, when the thickness of ice is lower, the underground contribution to streamflow in the river is higher by the end of winter. Shiklomanov and Lammers (2014) , 2017-2019). However, Shiklomanov and Lammers (2014) have found that the relationship between annual maximum ice thickness and mean river discharge over the November-April period has shown no significant correlation: the highest correlation coefficients were found for the Yenisey (r = −0.63) and Lena rivers (r = −0.54).…”

Section: Wintermentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Numerous studies have shown that river streamflow in northern Eurasia and North America is increasing (Holland et al, 2007;Shiklomanov and Lammers, 2013;Rawlins et al, 2010). Most of them are focused exclusively on the "Big 6" Arctic rivers -the Ob', Yenisey, Lena, Mackenzie, Yukon, and Kolyma (Peterson et al, 2002;Holmes et al, 2013;Rood et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Warming temperatures are impacting the hydrometeorological regime of Russian rivers in the zone of continuous permafrost

et al. 2019

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Abstract. Large Arctic river basins experience substantial variability in climatic, landscape, and permafrost conditions. However, the processes behind the observed changes at the scale of these basins are relatively poorly understood. While most studies have been focused on the “Big 6” Arctic rivers – the Ob', Yenisey, Lena, Mackenzie, Yukon, and Kolyma – few or no assessments exist for small and medium-sized river basins, such as the Yana and Indigirka River basins. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of streamflow data from 22 hydrological gauges in the Yana and Indigirka River basins with a period of observation ranging from 35 to 79 years up to 2015. These river basins are fully located in the zone of continuous permafrost. Our analysis reveals statistically significant (p<0.05) positive trends in the monthly streamflow time series during the autumn–winter period for most of the gauges. The streamflow increases in a stepwise pattern (post-1981) for 17 out of 22 gauges in September (average trend value for the period of record is 58 % or 9.8 mm) and 15 out of 22 gauges in October (61 % or 2.0 mm). The positive trends are seen in 9 out of 19 rivers that do not freeze in November (54 %, 0.4 mm) and 6 out of 17 rivers that do not freeze in December (95 %, 0.15 mm). Precipitation is shown to decrease in late winter by up to 15 mm over the observational period. Additionally, about 10 mm of precipitation that used to fall as snow at the beginning of winter now falls as rain. Despite the decrease in winter precipitation, no decrease in streamflow has been observed during the spring freshet in May and June in the last 50 years (from 1966); moreover, five gauges show an increase of 86 % or 12.2 mm in spring floods via an abrupt change in 1987–1993. The changes in spring freshet start date are identified for 10 gauges; the earlier onset in May varies from 4 to 10 d over the observational period. We conclude that warmer temperatures due to climate change are impacting the hydrological regime of these rivers via changes in precipitation type (rain replacing snow). Other factors, such as the melting of permafrost, glaciers, and aufeis or changes in groundwater conditions, are likely to contribute as well; however, no direct observations of these changes are available. The changes in streamflow can have a significant impact on the ecology of the zone of continuous permafrost, while the increasing freshwater fluxes to the Arctic Ocean can impact the Arctic thermohaline circulation.

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Section: Aufeis and Glaciersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Wintermentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Warming temperatures are impacting the hydrometeorological regime of Russian rivers in the zone of continuous permafrost

et al. 2019

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“…Peatland permafrost covers extensive areas such as the Western Siberian Lowlands (900,000 km 2 ) where permafrost evolves from north to south from continuous to discontinuous and sporadic. This region stores more than 50 × 10 6 t of carbon (Kremenetski et al, ) and shows first evidence of permafrost disappearance and increase in active layer thickness due to climate change (Romanovsky et al, ; Sherstyukov & Sherstyukov, ). Therefore, the evolution of the peat plateau and palsas is important for the global permafrost state and areas in which degradation is currently ongoing offer great potential to investigate the processes driving their thermal regime.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stability Conditions of Peat Plateaus and Palsas in Northern Norway

et al. 2019

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Peat plateaus and palsas are characteristic morphologies of sporadic permafrost, and the transition from permafrost to permafrost‐free ground typically occurs on spatial scales of meters. They are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are currently degrading in Fennoscandia. Here we present a spatially distributed data set of ground surface temperatures for two peat plateau sites in northern Norway for the year 2015–2016. Based on these data and thermal modeling, we investigate how the snow depth and water balance modulate the climate signal in the ground. We find that mean annual ground surface temperatures are centered around 2 to 2.5 °C for stable permafrost locations and 3.5 to 4.5 °C for permafrost‐free locations. The surface freezing degree days are characterized by a noticeable threshold around 200 °C.day, with most permafrost‐free locations ranging below this value and most stable permafrost ones above it. Freezing degree day values are well correlated to the March snow cover, although some variability is observed and attributed to the ground moisture level. Indeed, a zero curtain effect is observed on temperature time series for saturated soils during winter, while drained peat plateaus show early freezing surface temperatures. Complementarily, modeling experiments allow identifying a drainage effect that can modify 1‐m ground temperatures by up to 2 °C between drained and water accumulating simulations for the same snow cover. This effect can set favorable or unfavorable conditions for permafrost stability under the same climate forcing.

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“…A large network of hydrometeorological stations in Russia (and the former Soviet Union) provide the three required variables as follows: air temperature was acquired from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Global Summary of the Day (https://data.noaa.gov/ dataset/global-surface-summary-of-the-day-gsod), provided the snow depths were measured at stations (as opposed to local transects), and information on soil temperatures is available in Sherstyukov and Sherstyukov (2015). Data in the USA are from the Natural Resources Conservation Service as part of the SNOTEL and SCAN networks (http://www.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric

2017

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Abstract. Land models require evaluation in order to understand results and guide future development. Examining functional relationships between model variables can provide insight into the ability of models to capture fundamental processes and aid in minimizing uncertainties or deficiencies in model forcing. This study quantifies the proficiency of land models to appropriately transfer heat from the soil through a snowpack to the atmosphere during the cooling season (Northern Hemisphere: October-March). Using the basic physics of heat diffusion, we investigate the relationship between seasonal amplitudes of soil versus air temperatures due to insulation from seasonal snow. Observations demonstrate the anticipated exponential relationship of attenuated soil temperature amplitude with increasing snow depth and indicate that the marginal influence of snow insulation diminishes beyond an "effective snow depth" of about 50 cm. A snow and heat transfer metric (SHTM) is developed to quantify model skill compared to observations. Land models within the CMIP5 experiment vary widely in SHTM scores, and deficiencies can often be traced to model structural weaknesses. The SHTM value for individual models is stable over 150 years of climate, 1850-2005, indicating that the metric is insensitive to climate forcing and can be used to evaluate each model's representation of the insulation process.

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Spatial features and new trends in thermal conditions of soil and depth of its seasonal thawing in the permafrost zone

Cited by 22 publications

References 1 publication

Warming temperatures are impacting the hydrometeorological regime of Russian rivers in the zone of continuous permafrost

Warming temperatures are impacting the hydrometeorological regime of Russian rivers in the zone of continuous permafrost

Stability Conditions of Peat Plateaus and Palsas in Northern Norway

Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric

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