Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe

Doxa, Aggeliki; Kamarianakis, Yiannis; Mazaris, Antonios D.

doi:10.1111/gcb.16072

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 129 publications

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“…Shabani et al (2016) showed how the type of SDM can considerably influence the projections of modelled habitat for Australian plants. Nevertheless, we found pockets of consensus in climatically suitable habitat around the Great Lakes for a number of species (areas in green and yellow in the consensus maps, Figure 3), indicating a potential for climate refugia (see also Doxa et al, 2022; Stralberg et al, 2018). Overall, using a variety of SDMs and RCPs can highlight areas of uncertainty and areas of consensus, information that is critical for conservation planning and forest management moving forward.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…To identify areas of agreement in climatic suitability/unsuitability for a given RCP model, we mapped areas of consensus in climatically suitable habitat by RCP (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to highlight how SDM choice influenced model outputs. Moreover, to identify possible climatic refugia (Doxa et al, 2022; Saraiva et al, 2021), we overlaid the outputs of the four simulations to highlight areas of consensus in climatic suitability/unsuitability across all SDM × RCP model combinations. From here, for each cell, we calculated the number of climatically suitable simulations (values ranging from 0—i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

Boisvert‐Marsh

Pedlar

Blois

et al. 2022

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim: Species distribution models typically project climatically suitable habitat for trees in eastern North America to shift hundreds of kilometres this century. We simulated potential migration, accounting for various traits that affect species' ability to track climatically suitable habitat.Location: Eastern Canada, covering ~3.7 million km 2 . Methods:We simulated migration-constrained range shifts through 2100 using a hybrid approach combining projections of climatically suitable habitat based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) for three time periods and two species distribution modelling approaches with process-based models parameterized using data related to dispersal ability and generation time. We developed a unique "migration kernel" that uses seed dispersal traits and observed migration velocities to obtain kernel shape and dispersal probabilities for each tree species. We then calculated lags between the migration-constrained range limits obtained through simulations and limits of climatically suitable habitat.Results: All species demonstrated northward range shifts at the leading edge of their simulated distribution through 2100, but the magnitude and rate of that shift varied by species and time period. Climatically suitable habitat limits were found to be north of simulated distribution limits across both RCPs, with lags increasing through time.On average, simulated distribution that remained within climatically suitable habitat declined more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, with large areas of the rear edge of the simulated distribution becoming partially or completely climatically unsuitable for many species.Main conclusions: Climatically suitable habitat limits projected for 2100 far exceeded migration-constrained range limits for all 10 tree species, particularly for temperate species. This study underlines the limited extent to which tree species will track climate change via natural migration. Integrating observed migration velocities, seed dispersal and generation time with SDM outputs allows for more realistic evaluations | 2331 BOISVERT-MARSH et al.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

Boisvert‐Marsh

Pedlar

Blois

et al. 2022

Diversity and Distributions

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Still, suggesting that the latter is climatically more stable could be an artifact, as biological, biochemical, and oceanographic processes could degrade at much higher rates than in the first case. Thus areas where both biological and climatic criteria predict climatic stability may be perceived as low regret priority areas, where the primary focus should be given when designing a climate‐smart network (Brito‐Morales et al, 2022; Doxa et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on previous studies that suggested using an observed variation measure (for ex. SD) as the climatic analog threshold (Doxa et al, 2022; García Molinos et al, 2017), we estimated cell‐specific analog thresholds based on historical local climate variability, as the means to define conditions that deviate from historical and current climate. These cell‐specific thresholds may mirror biological relevant information as species may not tolerate climatic extremes that exceed previously observed climatic variability at each site (García Molinos et al, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The necessity of identifying sites that will most probably maintain their present climatic conditions, allowing local biota to sustain healthy populations over time, is also increasingly acknowledged (Katsanevakis et al, 2020; Kyprioti et al, 2021). Climate temporal stability and spatial heterogeneity, and their effects on the distribution of the biota are two key aspects to consider in climate‐effective protected area design (Doxa et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Doxa

Almpanidou

Katsanevakis

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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The marine realm is inherently three-dimensional, with marine biodiversity distribution varying greatly, not only across latitudinal and longitudinal gradients, but also with depth (Rex et al., 2005;Vassallo et al., 2020). One of the main challenges for effective conservation is to find ways of including this 3D organization of the biota into systematic conservation planning (Levin et al., 2018). Indeed, some recent studies have suggested the incorporation of this third dimension of the ocean (i.e., depth) to inform the prioritization of conser-

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Consequence of habitat specificity: a rising risk of habitat loss for endemic and sub-endemic woody species under climate change in the Hyrcanian ecoregion

Sękiewicz,

Salvà-Catarineu,

Walas

et al. 2024

Reg Environ Change

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Endemic species are more impacted by climate change than other taxa. However, assessing the vulnerability of endemics to these changes in some regions, such as the Hyrcanian forest, is limited, despite its importance for biodiversity and ecosystem function. To address the question of expected habitat shifts under climate change across the Hyrcanian ecoregion, we built an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 15 endemic woody taxa. To identify the potential priority conservation areas, we also applied a spatial prioritization approach. Overall, our results suggest that the impacts of climate change are more severe on the eastern parts of the region (Golestan) and the Talysh Mountains (north-western Hyrcanian ecoregion) with over 85% and 34% loss of suitable habitats over the next 80 years. The central part of the Alborz Mountains (Mazandaran) and some areas in the Talysh Mountains could be potential climatic refugia under the future conditions for endemic taxa. The most prominent changes are expected for Ruscus hyrcanus, Gleditsia capsica, Acer velutinum, Frangula grandifolia, and Buxus hyrcana. The worrying predicted loss of suitable habitats for most studied taxa would dramatically affect the stability and resilience of forests, threatening thus biodiversity of the Hyrcanian ecoregion. We present the first estimation of the potential risks involved and provide useful support for regional climate-adaptation strategy, indicating potential conservation priority areas for maintaining and preserving its resources. Notably, only 13.4% of areas designated for conservation and management under climate change will be located within the current Hyrcanian protected areas, yet the majority of these areas are classified as low priority.

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Spatial heterogeneity and temporal stability characterize future climatic refugia in Mediterranean Europe

Cited by 18 publications

References 129 publications

Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change

4D marine conservation networks: Combining 3D prioritization of present and future biodiversity with climatic refugia

Consequence of habitat specificity: a rising risk of habitat loss for endemic and sub-endemic woody species under climate change in the Hyrcanian ecoregion

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