Spatial Heterogeneity of the Recovery of Road Traffic Volume from the Impact of COVID-19: Evidence from China

Abstract

The impact of COVID-19 on traffic volume makes it essential to study the spatial heterogeneity and impact mechanisms of the recovery of road traffic volume to promote the sustainability of related industries. As the research method, this study used a principal component analysis to evaluate the recovery of road traffic volume in China quantitatively, and further conducted an empirical study using a spatial autocorrelation index and a dynamic spatial panel model. The results show that income has a negative impact on the recovery of road traffic volume, while climate suitability has a positive impact. Economic development and COVID-19 can play moderating and mediating effects, respectively. From the aspect of spatial heterogeneity, the recovery of road traffic volume has a positive spatial spillover effect on the surrounding provinces, while the spread of COVID-19 has a negative short-term indirect spatial spillover effect. Corresponding practical insights are provided for the stakeholders based on the above findings. The results of this study will contribute to the development of effective policies to facilitate the recovery of road traffic volume from the impact of COVID-19 and the revitalization of the transportation industry.

Quantifying Road Transport Resilience to Emergencies: Evidence from China

“…The finding that there is regional heterogeneity [11,12] in road transport resilience under the same external disturbance is consistent with the results of previous research. This result may be related to the differences in epidemic prevention and control measures, travel willingness, and travel demand of residents, which have been analyzed in existing studies [58][59][60].…”

“…Meanwhile, some studies have found that the impact of COVID-19 on road freight has regional heterogeneity [11,12]. However, the existing studies have mainly focused on the external effect of the pandemic on road transport, such as transport demand [13,14], transport capability [15,16], operating transport cost [17], transport performance [18], carbon emission [19][20][21], and the ability of road transport system to resist this impact and maintain its typical performance, which we define as road transport resilience [22,23], is still unclear.…”