Spatial–Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal

Abstract

The Maoist insurgency in Nepal is one of the highest intensity internal conflicts in recent times. Investigation into the causes of the conflict would suggest that grievance rather than greed is the main motivating force. The concept of horizontal or inter-group inequality, with both an ethnic and caste dimension, is highly relevant in explaining the Nepalese civil war. There is also a spatial aspect to the conflict, which is most intense in the most disadvantaged areas in terms of human development indicators and land holdings. Using the intensity of conflict (fatalities) as the dependent variable and HDI indicators and landlessness as explanatory variables, we find that the intensity of conflict across the districts of Nepal is significantly explained by the degree of inequalities.

Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison

“…Based on statistical evidence from sub-Saharan Africa, Østby (2008b) finds support for a strong effect of interaction between interregional asset inequality and political exclusion. Case studies of Côte d'Ivoire (Langer 2005) and Nepal (Murshed and Gates 2005) confirm this finding (see also Stewart, Brown, and Langer 2008, 289-90;cf. Hegre, Østby, and Raleigh 2009).…”

Horizontal Inequalities, Political Environment, And Civil Conflict : Evidence From 55 Developing Countries, 1986-2003

“…Both coefficients are positive at the 1% significance level, and their effects are very similar: If we increase the level of interregional horizontal inequality to the 95 th percentile while maintaining the other variables at their mean, the probability of conflict increases from about 3.8% to 9.5%. 20 This finding corresponds well with related investigations, such as Murshed & Gates (2005) who find that Nepalese districts with severe gaps relative to Kathmandu in terms of schooling are associated with higher conflict intensity.…”

“…However, there is reason to believe that a shared identity is not a sufficient factor to produce conflict. In line with this, Murshed & Gates (2005) argue that some well-defined grievances are required for identity-based conflict.…”

“…A handful of quantitative case studies of particular countries have done exactly this (see e.g. Mancini, 2005;Murshed & Gates, 2005;Tadjoeddin, 2003), but this of course requires disaggregation of the dependent variable and preferably the other independent variables (see also combined effects of subnational and national variables could be carried out in a multilevel model, (see e.g. Goldstein, 1995).…”

PRIO-GRID: A unified spatial data structure

“…Buhaug, Cederman & Rød, 2008;Weidmann, 2009) or subnational administrative entities (e.g. Murshed & Gates, 2005;Østby, Nordås & Rød, 2009) to better capture local variation. In addition, a host of local factors plausibly affecting the risk and course of armed conflict have become available in a geo-referenced format, such as population size/density (CIESIN, 2005), settlement areas of politically relevant ethnic groups (Wucherpfennig et al, 2011), economic activity (Nordhaus, 2006), natural resource sites (e.g.…”