Spatial model of land use/land cover change dynamics and projection of Cisadane Watershed

Abstract

One of the major problems in watershed management is to balance the ecological function and fulfillment of human needs in a limited area. Rapid land-use changes often occurred as a result of human activities. Regular monitoring of land-use change dynamics is needed to help the government in making a decision within the area. Cisadane watershed is one of 15 priority watersheds in West Java Province, which categorized as very critical. This study aims to: 1) analyze land use/land cover (LULC) change dynamics and patterns in Cisadane watershed from year 2003, 2009, 2013, and 2018, 2) develop LULC projection for year 2033 based on historical patterns using Markov chain algorithm, and 3) analyze LULC change pattern and projection towards the spatial planning. The study reveals that the most significant changes during the last 15 years is the increase in built-up areas (47%). On the other hand, forest and paddy field classes are experiencing a decrease of 7% and 31%, respectively. LULC projection under business as usual (BAU) condition resulted in the continuous increase of built-up areas up to 36% in the year 2033, which most of the changes come from the conversion of paddy field and dryland farming. LULC map of year 2018 and regency’s spatial planning was overlaid to confront the consistency within both maps. The overlaid shows inconsistency between current LULC and land allocation in spatial planning. The inconsistency mostly occurred in the area allocated as plantation (86%). The built-up area has the largest allocated areas in Cisadane watershed, while it is only 51% of the areas that had been utilized as a built-up area. The result of this study indicates the need to strengthen land allocation policy within the watershed, in particular, to control the development of the built-up area.

The impact of land-use changes and economic losses of paddy field conversion: a case study of Ciampea Sub-district, Bogor Regency, West Java Province

“…Meanwhile, The Agricultural Land Statistics showed that in 2014-2018, the total area of paddy fields in Bogor Regency continued to decline, with the land conversion rate reaching 4,579 hectares per annum [11]. It can be said that in the last two decades, large-scale conversion of agricultural land in Bogor Regency is taking place, particularly the conversion of food cropland into other uses, such as for settlements, industrial estates, and different types of development of nonagricultural use [12,13,14]. These massive land-use changes become one of the strategic issues for the future regional development of the Bogor Regency.…”

Analysis of Urban Land Use Changes in Xingtai City from the Year 2000 to 2020 for Urban Development Planning

“…Based on the division of functional areas, there are two distinct directions: urban agglomerations (Wang et al, 2021;Shan et al, 2020) and nature reserves (Xin et al, 2023). Moreover, based on the natural units, there are three different directions: watersheds (Wulandari et al, 2019), plateaus (Zhang et al, 2021), and mountains (Poyatos et al, 2003;Xystrakis et al, 2017). c. Local scales include counties (Karimi et al, 2018;Cheruto et al, 2016), villages, etc.…”