Spatial modeling sensitivity analysis: Copula selection for wind speed dependence

Abstract

As the adoption of wind energy as a key renewable energy source accelerates, precise power flow analysis becomes crucial for accurate power delivery forecasting. This paper addresses the inherent uncertainties in wind speed data at different wind farm locations by conducting a sensitivity analysis to assess wind farm pairs. The analysis accommodates various data sizes, namely, short, medium, and large, and diverse spatial relationships between wind farms. By leveraging National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind speed data from nine distinct wind farms, the dependence structure between wind farm pairs is modeled using copulas. This modeling takes both the wind speed knowledge level and the various spatial interplays among the wind farm pairs into consideration. The findings indicate an inverse proportionality between the strength of dependence and the distance separating the wind farm pairs.