Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases

Abstract

Summary 1.Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years. 2. We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population. 3. We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes. 4. The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models. 5. Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen-host system.

Covariation between the physiological and behavioral components of pathogen transmission: host heterogeneity determines epidemic outcomes

“…However, there is no consistent framework that outlines when individual heterogeneity in pathogen transmission is important and when it is necessary to account for those differences in sampling or interventions, even though allowing for such differences can markedly change predictions of an epidemic's duration and behavior (Keeling andEames 2005, Meyers 2007). By including the heterogeneity of hosts, populations or resources in modeling approaches, disease ecologists may develop targeted control measures that could increase the benefit-cost ratio of management strategies (Eisinger and Thulke 2008). This may occur through targeted monitoring or interventions (including vaccination, culling, treatment, etc.)…”

Mucosal Adjuvants to Improve Wildlife Rabies Vaccination

“…Vaccination rates in Texas have been sufficiently high to control rabies in gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) and coyotes (Canis latrans; Fearneyhough et al, 1998;Sidwa et al, 2005). Eisinger and Thulke (2008) suggest that a vaccination rate of 60% is sufficient to break the pathogen transmission cycle; however, the ORV program in the United States successfully vaccinates only about 30% of raccoons (Procyon lotor) (Slate et al, 2009).…”

Pattern Formation over Multigraphs

“…Additionally, we illustrated not only that random networks with the same density can behave drastically differently in terms of patterning, but more importantly, that this difference can be understood by focusing on the dominant eigenvalue of the interconnection matrix. In addition to being relevant when focusing on the spreading of infectious diseases and the behavior of multiple connected habitats in ecology [47], this result is especially well-suited for studying social networks to understand, for instance, racial segregation in sociology [48] and the polarization of opinions in political science [49]. Finally, our results apply equally to different mechanisms underlying pattern formation (diffusion, averaging, lateral inhibition, etc.…”