Spatial precipitation patterns and trends in The Netherlands during 1951–2009

Abstract

Significant increases in precipitation have been observed in The Netherlands over the last century. At the same time persistent spatial variations are apparent. The objective of this study is to analyse and explain these spatial patterns, focussing on changes in means and extremes for the period 1951-2009. To investigate different possibilities for the causes of spatial variations, a distinction was made between six regions based on mean precipitation, soil type and elevation, and four zones at different distances to the coast. Spatial maxima in mean precipitation inland and over elevated areas are mainly formed in winter and spring, while maxima along the coast are generated in autumn. Daily precipitation maxima are found in the central West coast and over elevated areas. Upward trends in daily precipitation are highest from February to April and lowest from July to September. The strongest and most significant increases are found along the coast. For several seasonal and climatological periods diverging behaviour between coastal and inland zones is observed. We find that distance to the coast gives a more consistent picture for the seasonal precipitation changes than a classification based on surface characteristics. Therefore, from the investigated surface factors, we consider sea surface temperature to have the largest influence on precipitation in The Netherlands.

Trends in Moderate Rainfall Extremes: A Regional Monotone Regression Approach

“…In summer, the behavior is subject to a coastal effect as previously discovered by Lenderink et al (2009) and also supported here [see also Daniels et al (2014)]. Trends in summer precipitation extremes were not significant in the eastern part of the country, which is in agreement with the results of Zolina et al (2008) for precipitation extremes during the period 1950-2004 for the adjacent German region.…”

“…Buishand et al (2013) also found a clear coastal effect in the number of days per year with a precipitation amount .30 mm. Daniels et al (2014) studied the trends in seasonal mean precipitation and quantiles of the wet-day precipitation amounts for the period 1951-2009. It was found that zones based on distance to the coast gave a more consistent picture of precipitation changes over time than regions based on soil type, topography, or urbanization.…”

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

“…So apparently factors other than land use changes have been dominant. The observed change in precipitation was larger in the winter half-year than the summer half-year nonetheless, and the trend in the summer months (June-August) in the period 1951-2009 was only about 5 % (Daniels et al, 2014). Hence, land surface changes in the last century might have mitigated some of the precipitation increase in summer and hereby have contributed to the relatively low increase observed in summer.…”

“…In contrast to the above, an earlier study using a model to investigate land surface changes in the Netherlands in spring found that precipitation is in fact reduced after expansion of urban areas (Daniels et al, 2014). That study also tested the sensitivity of precipitation to soil moisture and found a positive feedback; that is, wet (dry) soils increase (decrease) the amount of precipitation.…”

“…Urban areas outside of the Netherlands are removed in the historic, and expanded in the future, land cover scenarios, in the same way as in Daniels et al (2014). Angel et al (2011)'s projections of urban land cover are used to determine the level of expansion.…”