Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling

Abstract

Neglect of ecological knowledge is a limiting factor in the use of statistical modelling to predict species distribution. Three components are needed for statistical modelling, an ecological model concerning the ecological theory to be used or tested, a data model concerning the collection and measurement of the data, and a statistical model concerning the statistical theory and methods used. This component framework is reviewed with emphasis on ecological theory. The expected shape of a species response curve to an environmental gradient is a central assumption on which agreement has yet to be reached. The nature of the environmental predictors whether indirect variables, e.g. latitude that have no physiological impact on plants, or direct variables, e.g. temperature also influence the type of response expected. Straight-line relationships between organisms and environment are often used uncritically. Many users of canonical correlation analysis use linear (straight-line) functions to relate ordination axes to variables such as slope and aspect though this is not a necessary part of the method. Some statisticians have used straight lines for species/environment relationships without testing, when evaluating new statistical procedures. Assumptions used in one component often conflict with those in another component. Statistical models can be used to explore ecological theory. Skewed species response curves predominate contrary to the symmetric unimodal curves assumed by some statistical methods. Improvements in statistical modelling can be achieved based on ecological concepts. Examples include incorporating interspecific competition from dominant species; more proximal predictors based on water balance models and spatial autocorrelation procedures to accommodate non-equilibrium vegetation. #

Space-Time Models for a Panzootic in Bats, With a Focus on the Endangered Indiana Bat

“…The most obvious limitation is that our model is phenomenologic rather than mechanistic; therefore, our understanding of the causative processes associated with disease spread is tenuous (Austin, 2002;Rothman and Greenland, 2005). For instance, as G. destructans moves west, it may not manifest the same consequences (e.g., timing and magnitude of mortality) seen in wintering populations in the northeastern United States, potentially leading to a mismatch in the occurrence of G. destructans and WNS (Flory et al, 2012;Hallam and Federico, 2012).…”

“…As locations became infected, they were thereafter considered sources of infection. Finally, we considered geographical location (longitude, latitude, and their interaction) to accommo-date lurking or unknown, but spatially informative, covariates (Austin, 2002).…”

Miocene precipitation in Europe: Temporal trends and spatial gradients

“…Principally, the method is based on the observation that climate and especially precipitation serves as a direct predictor for the herpetofaunal distribution and species richness and yields robust and widely applicable modelling results (Austin, 2002;Guisan and Hofer, 2003;Girardello et al, 2010). According to their ecophysiological strategies and adaptations to maintain thermoregulation, water balance and gas exchange, amphibians and reptiles (excluding non-fossorial snakes) are assorted into six ecophysiologic groups.…”

Habitat Suitability Modeling of Javan Rhino (Rhinoceros sondaicus Desmarest 1822) in Ujung Kulon National Park

“…Analisis tersebut dapat memberikan informasi yang penting dan akurat mengenai habitat badak jawa sehingga dapat mendukung pembuatan keputusan yang baik. Selain itu, analisis tersebut tidak saja dapat menampilkan informasi mengenai kondisi habitat pada waktu tertentu tetapi juga dapat digunakan untuk mengevaluasi terjadinya perubahan-perubahan berdasarkan faktor ekologi dan sosial (Austin 2002).…”

“…Pemodelan kesesuaian habitat memprediksi kesesuaian habitat bagi spesies berdasarkan penilaian atribut habitat seperti struktur habitat, tipe habitat, dan pengaturan spasial antar komponen habitat. Model kesesuaian habitat telah menjadi alat yang digunakan baik untuk memahami karakteristik habitat yang berbeda, mengevaluasi kualitas habitat, dan mengembangkan strategi pengelolaan satwa liar (Austin 2002).…”