Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria

Abstract

Expansion of arid lands due to climate change, particularly in water stressed regions of the world can have severe implications on the economy and people’s livelihoods. The spatiotemporal trends in aridity, the shift of land from lower to higher arid classes and the effect of this shift on different land uses in Syria have been evaluated in this study for the period 1951–2010 using high-resolution monthly climate data of the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group of Princeton University. The trends in rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration were also evaluated to understand the causes of aridity shifts. The results revealed an expansion of aridity in Syria during 1951–1980 compared to 1981–2010. About 6.21% of semi-arid land was observed to shift to arid class and 5.91% dry-subhumid land to semi-arid land between the two periods. Analysis of results revealed that the decrease in rainfall is the major cause of increasing aridity in Syria. About 28.3% of agriculture land located in the north and the northwest was found to shift from humid to dry-subhumid or dry-subhumid to semi-arid. Analysis of results revealed that the shifting of drylands mostly occurred in the northern agricultural areas of Syria. The land productivity and irrigation needs can be severely affected by increasing aridity which may affect food security and the economy of the country.

Desertification susceptibility over Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, based on aridity indices and geoprocessing

“…Studying the changing patterns of climate at regional scale, especially the increasing of aridity, is particularly important in countries which depend mostly on the use and management of natural resources and agricultural production as their economic basis. Hence, those climate shifts can have a considerable impact on the economy and people's subsistence in the areas affected (Houmsi et al ., 2019).…”

Historical trends in crop water demand over semiarid region of Syria

“…Reduction in crop production due to water stress has also been stated in a number of studies (Bates et al, 2008). The situation may be adverse in west of Asia and Middle East region due to higher increase in temperature (Houmsi et al, 2019). Studies showed a rise in temperature at a much higher rate in Middle East compared to many other regions (Salman et al, 2018).…”

“…Unlike many other regions, precipitation in Middle Eastern region has been projected to decrease when the temperature rises (Lelieveld et al, 2012). These changes can lead to the impacts which are linked to shifting in aridity and the specific requirement of water level by different crops (Acreman et al, 2009, Wheeler et al, 2004, Houmsi et al, 2019. Because of climate change, water balance changes that are responsive in relation to topographical, geographical, and climatic controls can disrupt soil heterogeneity and agricultural operation (Houmsi et al, 2019).…”

“…These changes can lead to the impacts which are linked to shifting in aridity and the specific requirement of water level by different crops (Acreman et al, 2009, Wheeler et al, 2004, Houmsi et al, 2019. Because of climate change, water balance changes that are responsive in relation to topographical, geographical, and climatic controls can disrupt soil heterogeneity and agricultural operation (Houmsi et al, 2019). If appropriate steps are not taken, this may have a detrimental effect on the region's livelihood and economic activities (Ahmed et al, 2019, Khan et al, 2018.…”

“…Aridity has been found increasing in major parts of the world particularly in Middle Eastern countries. Houmsi et al (2019) evaluated the aridity expansion in Syria from 1981-2010. The study reported that the decrease in rainfall has instigated the changes in aridity.…”