Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Rules and the Lucas Critique

Bisin, Alberto; Moro, Andrea

doi:10.48550/arxiv.2103.13789

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…Several studies have already tried to use the ongoing pandemic as a natural experiment to better understand the effect of public policy on the behavior of individuals. Bisin and Moro (2021) introduce a model of diffusion of an epidemic with demographically heterogeneous agents interacting socially to assess the cost of naïve discretionary policies, ignoring agents' and firms' behavioral responses, and find that the adverse effects and costs of policy interventions are potentially first order important. Toxvaerd (2020) present an economic model, suggesting that uncoordinated social distancing acts to flatten the curve of the epidemic by reducing peak disease prevalence.…”

Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Pandemics: How to Contain COVID-19 Through Internal and External Lockdowns and Their Release

Bonardi

Gallea

Kalanoski³

et al. 2023

Management Science

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Containing a pandemic is first and foremost a management problem: one has to find ways to reduce mobility and physical contacts in order to slow down the spread of the virus. We discuss and construct a novel database of internal and external lockdown measures around the world and analyze whether they helped reduce the spread of infections and the number of deaths. We address the endogeneity of lockdowns by modeling anticipation effects. Our data cover 178 countries in the period from December 2019 to November 2020 and identify lockdown and release periods along with confirmed cases of infections and deaths resulting from COVID-19. Overall, we find that lockdowns were effective, reduced mobility, and saved about 3.6 million lives in developed countries within 100 days after they were implemented. Measures taken within countries (rather than border closure) and partial lockdowns (instead of more constraining measures) were the most effective. However, in developing countries, where the opportunity cost of staying home might be too high for people to comply, lockdowns were ineffective. Additionally, the release of lockdown measures, which started in mid-May 2020 in most countries, did not lead to a strong resurgence of the virus except for border closure releases. This paper was accepted by Stefan Scholtes, healthcare management. Supplemental Material: The data is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4652 .

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Section: Existing Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Pandemics: How to Contain COVID-19 Through Internal and External Lockdowns and Their Release

Bonardi

Gallea

Kalanoski³

et al. 2023

Management Science

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“…), but also crucially revolves on individual choices. To endogenize infection rate has been proposed several approaches, among which a purely epidemiological approach as Fenichel (2013) and a behavioral approach (see Engle et al, 2020a andBisin &Moro, 2021). Farboodi et al (2020), Toxvaerd (2020), andEichenbaum et al (2020a) are instead more in line with our approach, developing a settings where forward-looking individuals chose their actions facing a epidemic-economic trade-off.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

Fabbri¹,

Federico²,

Fiaschi³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In this paper we propose a theoretical model including a susceptible-infectedrecovered-dead (SIRD) model of epidemic in a dynamic macroeconomic general equilibrium framework with agents' mobility. The latter affect both their income (and consumption) and their probability of infecting and of being infected. Strategic complementarities among individual mobility choices drive the evolution of aggregate economic activity, while infection externalities caused by individual mobility affect disease diffusion. Rational expectations of forward looking agents on the dynamics of aggregate mobility and epidemic determine individual mobility decisions.The model allows to evaluate alternative scenarios of mobility restrictions, especially policies dependent on the state of epidemic.We prove the existence of an equilibrium and provide a recursive construction method for finding equilibrium(a), which also guides our numerical investigations.We calibrate the model by using Italian experience on COVID-19 epidemic in the period February 2020 -May 2021. We discuss how our economic SIRD (ESIRD) model produces a substantially different dynamics of economy and epidemic with respect to a SIRD model with constant agents' mobility. Finally, by numerical explorations we illustrate how the model can be used to design an efficient policy of state-of-epidemic-dependent mobility restrictions, which mitigates the epidemic peaks stressing health system, and allows for trading-off the economic losses due to reduced mobility with the lower death rate due to the lower spread of epidemic.

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Spatial-SIR with Network Structure and Behavior: Lockdown Rules and the Lucas Critique

Cited by 2 publications

References 12 publications

Managing Pandemics: How to Contain COVID-19 Through Internal and External Lockdowns and Their Release

Managing Pandemics: How to Contain COVID-19 Through Internal and External Lockdowns and Their Release

Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

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