Spatial spread of an alien tree species in a heterogeneous forest landscape: a spatially realistic simulation model

Sebert-Cuvillier, Emmanuelle; Simon-Goyheneche, Valérie; Paccaut, Frédéric; Chabrerie, Olivier; Goubet, Olivier; Decocq, Guillaume

doi:10.1007/s10980-008-9237-4

Cited by 33 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Analytical and simulation models offer a tractable experimental setting to investigate the influence of demographic and dispersal (e.g., Shigesada et al 1995, Kot et al 1996, Neubert and Caswell 2000, Woolcock and Cousens 2000, Clark et al 2001, Yamamura 2004, Buckley et al 2005, Dwyer and Morris 2006, Nehrbass et al 2007, Skarpaas and Shea 2007, Jongejans et al 2008a, and landscape (e.g., Bergelson et al 1993, van Dorp et al 1997, Collingham and Huntley 2000, King and With 2002, So¨ndgerath and Schro¨der 2002, Matlack and Monde 2004, Nehrbass et al 2007, Sebert-Cuvillier et al 2008) parameters on spread. These studies highlight that spread models are extremely sensitive to the input dispersal parameters, emphasizing that accurate predictions require high-quality dispersal observations, such as may be provided by remote sensing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of temporally variable dispersal and landscape structure on invasive species spread

Andrew

Ustin

2010

Ecological Applications

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Abstract. Many invasive species are too widespread to realistically eradicate. For such species, a viable management strategy is to slow the rate of spread. However, to be effective, this will require detailed spread data and an understanding of the influence of environmental conditions and landscape structure on invasion rates. We used a time series of remotely sensed distribution maps and a spatial simulation model to study spread of the invasive Lepidium latifolium (perennial pepperweed) in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. L. latifolium is a noxious weed and exhibited rapid, explosive spread. Annual infested area and empirical dispersal kernels were derived from the remotely sensed distributions in order to assess the influence of weather conditions on spread and to parameterize the simulation model. Spread rates and dispersal distances were highest for nascent infestations and in years with wet springs. Simulations revealed that spread rates were more strongly influenced by the length of long-distance dispersal than by temporal variation in its likelihood. It is thus important to capture long-distance dispersal and the conditions that facilitate spread when collecting data to parameterize spread models. Additionally, management actions performed in high-spread years, targeting long-distance recruits, can effectively contain infestations. Corridors were relatively unimportant to spread rates; their effectiveness at enhancing rate of spread was limited by the species' dispersal ability and the time needed to travel through the corridor. In contrast, habitat abundance and shape surrounding the introduction site strongly influenced invasion dynamics. Satellite patches invading large areas of invasible habitat present especially high risk.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of temporally variable dispersal and landscape structure on invasive species spread

Andrew

Ustin

2010

Ecological Applications

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“…Every year an established mature tree produces a number of viable seeds; hence the cumulated number of seeds, and therefore its propagule pressure will increase with its residence time. As most seeds are dispersed either beneath the canopy of the mother tree or in its close vicinity, the risk of local extinction of an already established population decreases as the number of seeds produced increases, and the probability of establishing in adjacent, less invasible areas increases (Snyder and Chesson 2003;Sebert-Cuvillier et al 2008). Also, the chance of the invader's offspring finding a distant suitable habitat to create new founder populations increases as the number of seeds capable of undergoing LDD increases.…”

Section: Key Processes Driving Prunus Serotina Invasionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, the classical view, which states that only some species have a high 'invasiveness' defined by a particular set of life-history traits, and only recipient ecosystems have a high 'invasibility' as they provide a given set of biotic and abiotic characteristics (Lonsdale 1999;Alpert et al 2000), is progressively shifting towards a more elusive interacting continuum between those two components (Richardson and Pyšek 2006). In particular, the mass action of local dispersal has been shown to increase the chance for an invader to successfully establish, even in a priori lowly invasible habitats (Snyder and Chesson 2003;Sebert-Cuvillier et al 2008). 3.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although a rare event often involving a very small proportion of propagules, LDD has been found to ultimately control the rate of spread for a huge number of invasive plants (Higgins and Richardson 1999;Nathan et al 2005;Trakhtenbrot et al 2005;Garnier and Lecomte 2006). Long distance dispersal alone accounts for the usually observed exponential growth of the invasion front (Neubert and Caswell 2000;Cannas et al 2006), as well as for the creation of new founder populations in distant suitable areas (Nehrbass et al 2007;Sebert-Cuvillier et al 2008). 4.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The position of founder populations in relation to potentially invasible patches, and their spatial distribution are crucial to invasion patterns (Wilson et al 2007). Spatially explicit models revealed that environment heterogeneity, especially connectivity between patches of suitable habitats, increased the speed of invasion (Söndge-rath and Schröder 2002), but decreased the final spatial extent (Sebert-Cuvillier et al 2008). Moreover, even when dispersal is incorporated as a multidirectional process, landscape heterogeneity makes the invasion highly directional (Sebert-Cuvillier et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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PRUNUS: a spatially explicit demographic model to study plant invasions in stochastic, heterogeneous environments

et al. 2009

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To model the invasion of Prunus serotina invasion within a real forest landscape we built a spatially explicit, non-linear Markov chain which incorporated a stage-structured population matrix and dispersal functions. Sensitivity analyses were subsequently conducted to identify key processes controlling the spatial spread of the invader, testing the hypothesis that the landscape invasion patterns are driven in the most part by disturbance patterns, local demographical processes controlling propagule pressure, habitat suitability, and long-distance dispersal. When offspring emigration was considered as a density-dependent phenomenon, local demographic factors generated invasion patterns at larger spatial scales through three factors: adult longevity; adult fecundity; and the intensity of self-thinning during stand development. Three other factors acted at the landscape scale: habitat quality, which determined the proportion of the landscape mosaic which was potentially invasible; disturbances, which determined when suitable habitats became temporarily invasible; and the existence of long distance dispersal events, which determined how far from the existing source populations new founder populations could be created. As a flexible ''all-in-one'' model, PRUNUS offers perspectives for generalization to other plant invasions, and the study of interactions between key processes at multiple spatial scales.

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Getting the biggest birch for the bang: restoring and expanding upland birchwoods in the Scottish Highlands by managing red deer

Tanentzap

Zou

Coomes

2013

Ecology and Evolution

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High deer populations threaten the conservation value of woodlands and grasslands, but predicting the success of deer culling, in terms of allowing vegetation to recover, is difficult. Numerical simulation modeling is one approach to gain insight into the outcomes of management scenarios. We develop a spatially explicit model to predict the responses of Betula spp. to red deer (Cervus elaphus) and land management in the Scottish Highlands. Our model integrates a Bayesian stochastic stage-based matrix model within the framework of a widely used individual-based forest simulation model, using data collected along spatial and temporal gradients in deer browsing. By initializing our model with the historical spatial locations of trees, we find that densities of juvenile trees (<3 m tall) predicted after 9–13 years closely match counts observed in the field. This is among the first tests of the accuracy of a dynamical simulation model for predicting the responses of tree regeneration to herbivores. We then test the relative importance of deer browsing, ground cover vegetation, and seed availability in facilitating landscape-level birch regeneration using simulations in which we varied these three variables. We find that deer primarily control transitions of birch to taller (>3 m) height tiers over 30 years, but regeneration also requires suitable ground cover for seedling establishment. Densities of adult seed sources did not influence regeneration, nor did an active management scenario where we altered the spatial configuration of adults by creating “woodland islets”. Our results show that managers interested in maximizing tree regeneration cannot simply reduce deer densities but must also improve ground cover for seedling establishment, and the model we develop now enables managers to quantify explicitly how much both these factors need to be altered. More broadly, our findings emphasize the need for land managers to consider the impacts of large herbivores rather than their densities.

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Spatial spread of an alien tree species in a heterogeneous forest landscape: a spatially realistic simulation model

Cited by 33 publications

References 45 publications

The effects of temporally variable dispersal and landscape structure on invasive species spread

The effects of temporally variable dispersal and landscape structure on invasive species spread

PRUNUS: a spatially explicit demographic model to study plant invasions in stochastic, heterogeneous environments

Getting the biggest birch for the bang: restoring and expanding upland birchwoods in the Scottish Highlands by managing red deer

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