Spatial-temporal analysis of climate change impact on viticultural regions Valencia DO and Goriška Brda

Sirnik, Igor

doi:10.4995/thesis/10251/131695

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 136 publications

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“…If zero is defined for weights with a value less than 0.02, then the number of excluded models rises to ten (and includes EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5). While unique to the WV AVA, the LOCA CMIP5 archive, and the six indices evaluated herein, these optimal ensemble composition sizes and weights differ relative to previously reported ensemble sizes and weights assignments which used downscaled climate models to evaluate the impacts of climate change to viticulture [45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53].…”

Section: Gstmentioning

confidence: 78%

Ensembles for Viticulture Climate Classifications of the Willamette Valley Wine Region

Skahill

Berenguer

Stoll

2021

Climate

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Future climate projections provide an opportunity to evaluate cultivar climate classification and preferred styles of wine production for a wine grape growing region. However, ensemble selection must account for downscaled archive model skills and interdependence rather than be arbitrary and subjective. Relatedly, methods for generalizing climate model choice remain uncertain, particularly for identifying optimal ensemble subsets. In this study we consider the complete archive of the thirty-two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) downscaled historic datasets and their observational data that were used for downscaling and bias corrections. We apply four model averaging methods to determine optimal ensembles for the computation of six common climate classification indices for the Willamette Valley (WV) American Viticultural Area (AVA). Among the four methods evaluated, elastic-net regularization consistently performed best with identifying optimal ensemble subsets. Variation exists among the optimal ensembles computed for each of the six bioclimatic indices. However, a subset of approximately seven to ten climate models were consistently excluded across all six indices’ ensembles. While specific to the archive and wine region, optimal ensemble sizes were noticeably larger than ensemble sizes commonly employed in published studies. Results are reported such that they can be used by researchers to independently perform analyses involving any one of the six bioclimatic indices throughout the WV AVA while using historic and future LOCA CMIP5 climate projections. The data and methods employed herein are applicable for other wine regions.

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Section: Gstmentioning

confidence: 78%

Ensembles for Viticulture Climate Classifications of the Willamette Valley Wine Region

Skahill

Berenguer

Stoll

2021

Climate

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Spatial-temporal analysis of climate change impact on viticultural regions Valencia DO and Goriška Brda

Abstract: Last but not least I am deeply grateful to Čmrljček, my parents, my great parents, Kustec family and Le Clec'h family for their incredible and warm support over the PhD journey.

Cited by 1 publication

References 136 publications

Ensembles for Viticulture Climate Classifications of the Willamette Valley Wine Region

Ensembles for Viticulture Climate Classifications of the Willamette Valley Wine Region

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