Spatial–Temporal Assessment of Historical and Future Meteorological Droughts in China

Han, Rucun; Li, Zhanling; Li, Zhanjie; Han, Yan

doi:10.3390/atmos12060787

Cited by 17 publications

(27 citation statements)

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“…Under the low emission scenario, drought in south China exhibited a slowing trend. Han et al [23] found that most areas of China, especially north China, the Tibetan Plateau, and southwest China, will suffer more serious drought in the future, which differs from the results of the present study. It is likely that these discrepancies are caused by using different climatic models.…”

Section: Evolution Of Future Drought Characteristicscontrasting

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, we also found seasonal differences in future drought trends: China will alternate between dry and wet from north to south in spring, while the SPEI in summer and autumn showed that the drought trend across China will increase, and HARB and HURB are expected to experience more severe drought in summer, increasing by 2.9-5.7 times and 1.1-4.2 times relative to the historical periods. Chen et al [56], Chen et al [57], Han et al [23], and Song [58] reached the same conclusion. Our results showed that under the different SSP scenarios, there will be a downward trend in the drought in southwest China.…”

Section: Evolution Of Future Drought Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 55%

“…The drought frequency (DF) and intensity (DI) in most regions of China will increase significantly, and China will face a more serious drought crisis when the total radiation forcing reaches 4.5 W/m 2 and 8.5 W/m 2 after 2100, especially in northwest China [22]. Most parts of China are expected to suffer more serious droughts with a longer drought duration (DD) from 2021 to2100 under the RCP4.5 [23]. In previous studies, CMIP5 climate models were mostly used for drought forecasting; however, CMIP6 climate models have rarely been used for drought forecasting across China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

Sun

Qiang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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Understanding historical and future drought patterns is crucial to acclimation and the mitigation of drought. The negative impact of China’s droughts on the social economy has attracted attention; however, there is still no comprehensive or long-term monitoring pattern for future droughts. Here we evaluated the precipitation and temperature simulation capability of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and evaluated the temporal and spatial pattern of droughts during 1961–2099 across China. The results show that the multi-model ensemble mean (MME) is more representative of the observed precipitation and temperatures across China than the single climate model. China experienced an overall drying trend in the historical period. After 1991, the drought frequency (DF), drought duration (DD), and drought intensity (DI) in the northwest of the Inland River Basin and in the Yangtze River Basin increased significantly. Compared with the historical period, China will suffer more frequent drought events, although the DD and DI will be weakened under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, while China will experience longer DD and more serious drought events under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The Hai River Basin and Huai River Basin are expected to have more serious drought trends in summer. Compared with historical periods, the drought trend will increase by 2.9‒5.7 times and 1.1‒4.2 times, respectively. The results can be used for decision making regarding future drought control.

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Section: Evolution Of Future Drought Characteristicscontrasting

confidence: 99%

Section: Evolution Of Future Drought Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 55%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

Sun

Qiang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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“…Given this context, changes in spatial-temporal patterns of precipitation and temperatures are likely to make droughts more recurrent [12]. With global warming, the assessment and forecasting of droughts have become increasingly important issues for many countries [13]. The analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of drought plays an important role in drought disaster prediction, early warning, and drought losses' mitigation [14].…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Meteorological droughts are generally regarded as advanced risk signals for agricultural, and hydrological droughts are often accompanied by economic and social losses. It is therefore of vital importance to understand variations in meteorological droughts and forecast upcoming meteorological droughts [13].…”

Section: Climate Change Characterized By Global Warming Has Become An...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Yang

Bing

2022

Atmosphere

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Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming.

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Highly Efficient Water and Nitrogen Application Strategies for Maintaining Summer Maize Yield in the North China Plain During Future Drought Years

Wang,

Cheng

2024

Food and Energy Security

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Future frequent droughts threaten summer maize production in the North China Plain (NCP). A proper combination of irrigation and nitrogen (N) application can improve water and N use efficiency while maintaining summer maize yield. However, the optimal irrigation and N application strategies (OINASs) for summer maize during future drought years in the NCP require further exploration. This study applied the DSSAT‐CERES‐Maize model to investigate OINASs for summer maize for all drought years during 2021–2050 under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5). The performance of the OINASs was subsequently evaluated against no irrigation and N application (CK) condition and a conventional irrigation and N application strategy (CINAS). The results highlight the following: (1) For all drought years under the three SSP scenarios, the base fertilizer rate should be 60 kg/hm2, after that the irrigation and N application are required during the jointing and heading periods. Under the SSP1‐2.6 scenario, the average values of irrigation and N application during each earlier period are 35.5 mm and 22 kg/hm2. Under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, the average values are (34.5 mm, 23 kg/hm2) and (47.5 mm, 18 kg/hm2). (2) Under all SSP scenarios, the optimal irrigation amounts and N application rates are much lower than those under the CINAS. After applying OINASs for summer maize, an average of 1.16–1.22 billion kg of N and 2.98–5.19 billion m3 of freshwater will be saved per future drought year in the NCP. (3) Under all SSP scenarios, the summer maize yields under the OINASs are slightly and significantly greater than those under the CINAS and CK conditions. Moreover, both water and N use efficiencies improved under the OINASs compared with those under the CINAS, with more significant improvements in N use efficiency. The OINASs provide a practical way to ensure food security and environmental sustainability.

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Spatial–Temporal Assessment of Historical and Future Meteorological Droughts in China

Cited by 17 publications

References 50 publications

The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Highly Efficient Water and Nitrogen Application Strategies for Maintaining Summer Maize Yield in the North China Plain During Future Drought Years

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