Spatial-Temporal Evaluation and Prediction of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Xiangjiang River Basin Using County Units and Entropy Weight TOPSIS-BP Neural Network

Abstract

To improve the water resources carrying capacity of the Xiangjiang River Basin and achieve sustainable development, this article evaluates and predicts the Xiangjiang River Basin’s water resources carrying capacity level based on county-level units. This article takes 44 county-level units in the Xiangjiang River Basin as the evaluation target, selects TOPSIS and the entropy weight method to determine weights, calculates the water resources carrying capacity level of the evaluation sample, uses a BP neural network model to calculate the predicted water resources carrying capacity level for the next 5 years, and adds the GIS method for spatiotemporal analysis.(1) The water resources carrying capacity of the Xiangjiang River Basin has remained relatively stable for a long period, with overloaded areas being the majority. (2) There are relatively significant spatial differences in the carrying capacity of water resources: Zixing City, located upstream of the tributary, is far ahead due to its possession of the Dongjiang Reservoir; the water resources carrying capacity in the middle and lower reaches (northern region) is generally higher than that in the upper reaches (southern region). (3) According to the BP neural network model prediction, the water resources carrying capacity of the Xiangjiang River Basin will maintain a stable development trend in 2022, while areas such as Changsha and Zixing City will be in a critical state, and other counties and cities will be in an overloaded state.This study has important references value for the evaluation and early warning work of the Xiangjiang River Basin and related research, providing a scientific and systematic evaluation method and providing strong support for water resource management and planning in Hunan Province and other regions.