Spatial–temporal pattern and risk factor analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan urban region of China

Xiao, Gexin; Xu, Chengdong; Wang, Jinfeng; Yang, Dongyang; Wang, Li

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-998

Cited by 34 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…As has been mentioned above, the findings of correlation between GDP and infectious diseases have coincided with most previous studies 2,3,9,21,22 , but with only a few exceptions 9,23–25 . In those exceptional studies, GDP/GDP per capita was not significant predictor of the infectious diseases (e.g., syphilis, gonorrhoea, malaria and Hepatitis C), however, they still displayed the same signs of correlation as this study did.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China

Zhang

Yin

Zhou

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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The surveillance of infectious diseases is of great importance for disease control and prevention, and more attention should be paid to the Class B notifiable diseases in China. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the annual growth of Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) would decelerate below 7% after many years of soaring. Under such circumstances, this study aimed to answer what will happen to the incidence rates of infectious diseases in China if Chinese GDP growth remained below 7% in the next five years. Firstly, time plots and cross-correlation matrices were presented to illustrate the characteristics of data. Then, the multivariate time series (MTS) models were proposed to explore the dynamic relationship between incidence rates and GDP. Three kinds of MTS models, i.e., vector auto-regressive (VAR) model for original series, VAR model for differenced series and error-correction model (ECM), were considered in this study. The rank of error-correction term was taken as an indicator for model selection. Finally, our results suggested that four kinds of infectious diseases (epidemic hemorrhagic fever, pertussis, scarlet fever and syphilis) might need attention in China because their incidence rates have increased since the year 2010.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 87%

Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China

Zhang

Yin

Zhou

et al. 2016

Sci Rep

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“…The high incidence rate observed in Beijing and Tianjin could potentially be explained by the high population density and good case ascertainment rates in these two regions [18]. These two regions are also known for having a large transient population who mostly live in suburban areas without proper sanitation and access to clean water [19]. …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Children <5 years of age are likely susceptible to bacillary dysentery because of low immune function, lack of previous exposure, and a higher chance of exposure to a Shigella -contaminated environment through play-related activities [24, 25]. The difference in incidence between male and female individuals, especially those <5 years of age may be because male individuals are generally more active than female individuals, and thus have more opportunities to be exposed to environments containing bacteria [19]. Over the study period, we also observed a decrease in the proportion of bacillary dysentery cases identified in individuals 5–19 years of age and a corresponding increase in the proportion of cases in individuals ≥60 years of age.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The changing epidemiology of bacillary dysentery and characteristics of antimicrobial resistance of Shigella isolated in China from 2004–2014

Chang

Zhang

et al. 2016

BMC Infect Dis

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BackgroundBacillary dysentery caused by bacteria of the genus Shigella is a significant public health problem in developing countries such as China. The objective of this study was to analyze the epidemiological pattern of bacillary dysentery, the diversity of the causative agent, and the antimicrobial resistance patterns of Shigella spp. for the purpose of determining the most effective allocation of resources and prioritization of interventions.MethodsSurveillance data were acquired from the National Infectious Disease Information Reporting System (2004–2014) and from the sentinel hospital-based surveillance system (2005–2014). We analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of bacillary dysentery, age and sex distribution, species diversity, and antimicrobial resistance patterns of Shigella spp.ResultsThe surveillance registry included over 3 million probable cases of bacillary dysentery during the period 2004–2014. The annual incidence rate of bacillary dysentery decreased from 38.03 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2004 to 11.24 cases per 100,000 person-years in 2014. The case-fatality rate decreased from 0.028% in 2004 to 0.003% in 2014. Children aged <1 year and 1–4 years were most affected, with higher incidence rates (228.59 cases per 100,000 person-years and 92.58 cases per 100,000 person-years respectively). The annual epidemic season occurred between June and September. A higher incidence rate of bacillary dysentery was found in the Northwest region, Beijing and Tianjin during the study period. Shigella flexneri was the most prevalent species that caused bacillary dysentery in China (63.86%), followed by Shigella sonnei (34.89%). Shigella isolates were highly resistant to nalidixic acid (89.13%), ampicillin (88.90%), tetracycline (88.43%), and sulfamethoxazole (82.92%). During the study period, isolates resistant to ciprofloxacin and cefotaxime increased from 8.53 and 7.87% in 2005 to 44.65 and 29.94% in 2014, respectively.ConclusionsThe incidence rate of bacillary dysentery has undergone an obvious decrease from 2004 to 2014. Priority interventions should be delivered to populations in northwest China and to individuals aged <5 years. Antimicrobial resistance of Shigella is a serious public health problem and it is important to consider the susceptibility profile of isolates before determining treatment.

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“…The transmission pattern of shigellosis has shifted from water/food-to-person to person-to-person, with high risk groups being particularly men who have sex with other men (MSM) in developed countries [1]. Meanwhile, numerous studies have reported that the incidence in males is higher than that in female [6][7][8]. Does this mean that the transmissibility of shigellosis among males is stronger than that among females?…”

Section: Epidemiological Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Humans are the only natural host for Shigella spp.. In recent years, numerous reports have demonstrated that the incidence of shigellosis within males is higher than that within females [6][7][8]. The incidence of shigellosis, a water/food born disease, is directly related to the hygiene behaviours such as regular hand washing [9].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

et al. 2020

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Background: Developing countries exhibit a high disease burden from shigellosis. Owing to the different incidences in males and females, this study aims to analyze the features involved in the transmission of shigellosis among male (subscript m) and female (subscript f) individuals using a newly developed sex-based model. Methods:The data of reported shigellosis cases were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Hubei Province from 2005 to 2017. A sex-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/ Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to explore the dataset, and a sex-age-based SEIAR model was applied in 2010 to explore the sex-and age-specific transmissions.Results: From 2005 to 2017, 130 770 shigellosis cases (including 73 981 male and 56 789 female cases) were reported in Hubei Province. The SEIAR model exhibited a significant fitting effect with the shigellosis data (P < 0.001). The median values of the shigellosis transmission were 2.3225 × 10 8 for SAR mm (secondary attack rate from male to male), 2.5729 × 10 8 for SAR mf , 2.7630 × 10 -8 for SAR fm , and 2.1061 × 10 -8 for SAR ff . The top five mean values of the transmission relative rate in 2010 (where the subscript 1 was defined as male and age ≤ 5 years, 2 was male and age 6 to 59 years, 3 was male and age ≥ 60 years, 4 was female and age ≤ 5 years, 5 was female and age 6 to 59 years, and 6 was male and age ≥ 60 years) were 5.76 × 10 -8 for β 61 , 5.32 × 10 -8 for β 31 , 4.01 × 10 -8 for β 34 , 7.52 × 10 -9 for β 62 , and 6.04 × 10 -9 for β 64 .Conclusions: The transmissibility of shigellosis differed among male and female individuals. The transmissibility between the genders was higher than that within the genders, particularly female-to-male transmission. The most important route in children (age ≤ 5 years) was transmission from the elderly (age ≥ 60 years). Therefore, the greatest interventions should be applied in females and the elderly.

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Spatial–temporal pattern and risk factor analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan urban region of China

Cited by 34 publications

References 17 publications

Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China

Multivariate time series analysis on the dynamic relationship between Class B notifiable diseases and gross domestic product (GDP) in China

The changing epidemiology of bacillary dysentery and characteristics of antimicrobial resistance of Shigella isolated in China from 2004–2014

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among male and female individuals: a modeling study in Hubei Province, China

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