Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh

Chowdhury, Md. Arif; Zzaman, Rashed Uz; Tarin, Nusrat Jahan; Hossain, Mohammad Jobayer

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-05039-3

Cited by 14 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 106 publications

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“…Seminal studies, leveraging diverse regression techniques, have highlighted the temperature dependency of extreme rainfall events and the intricate probabilistic interplay between thermal and precipitation variables across varied climatic spectra [30,31]. Yet, a conspicuous research chasm persists, particularly in quantifying the risks tethered to concomitant UEH and UER manifestations [32]. This lacuna accentuates the exigency of targeted CME hazard assessments, fostering a granular understanding of the multifaceted impacts of climatic shifts on such phenomena, a sine qua non for devising robust early-warning and mitigation stratagems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Wang,

Chen,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Concurrent meteorological extremes (CMEs) represent a class of pernicious climatic events characterized by the coexistence of two extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, the juxtaposition of Urban Extreme Rainfall (UER) and Urban Extreme Heat (UEH) can precipitate disproportionately deleterious impacts on both ecological systems and human well-being. In this investigation, we embarked on a meticulous risk appraisal of CMEs within China’s Greater Bay Area (GBA), harnessing the predictive capabilities of three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, in conjunction with the EC-Earth3-Veg-LR model from the CMIP6 suite. The findings evidence a pronounced augmentation in CME occurrences, most notably under the SSP1-2.6 trajectory. Intriguingly, the SSP5-8.5 pathway, typified by elevated levels of greenhouse gas effluents, prognosticated the most intense CMEs, albeit with a temperate surge upon occurrence. Additionally, an ascendant trend in the ratio of CMEs to the aggregate of UER and UEH portends an escalating susceptibility to these combined events in ensuing decades. A sensitivity analysis accentuated the pivotal interplay between UER and UEH as a catalyst for the proliferation of CMEs, modulated by alterations in their respective marginal distributions. Such revelations accentuate the imperative of assimilating intricate interdependencies among climatic anomalies into evaluative paradigms for devising efficacious climate change countermeasures. The risk assessment paradigm proffered herein furnishes a formidable instrument for gauging the calamitous potential of CMEs in a dynamically shifting climate, thereby refining the precision of prospective risk estimations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Wang,

Chen,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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“…By understanding the interaction between rainfall and other factors contributing to flooding, mitigation efforts can be more effective in reducing the risk and consequences of flooding events. Aspect factor in flood analysis was selected; due to its impact on the amount of precipitation/rainfall and level of sunshine available in the marshland (Chowdhury et al, 2022). Excluding flat, which varies from −1˚ to 59.1˚, all other classes of this factor exhibited a relationship with flooding, with the strongest found at the north-west (239.4˚ -299.5˚) and North aspect (299.5˚ -359.6˚) (Table 1).…”

Section: Factors Influencing Flood Hazard Zoning In Gishari Agricultu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Techniques to Derive Flood Risks Management on Rice Productivity in Gishari Marshland

Nsengiyumva,

Nshimiyimana,

Ntakirutimana

et al. 2024

GEP

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Floods are phenomenon with significant socio-economic implications mainly for human loss, agriculture, livestock, soil loss and land degradation, for which many researchers try to identify the most appropriate methodologies by analyzing their temporal and spatial development. This study therefore attempts to employ the GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis and analytical hierarchy process techniques to derive the flood risks management on rice productivity in the Gishari Agricultural Marshland in Rwamagana district, Rwanda. Here, six influencing potential factors to flooding, including river slope, soil texture, Land Use Land Cover through Land Sat 8, rainfall, river distance and Digital Elevation Model are considered for the delineation of flood risk zones. Data acquisition like Landsat 8 images, DEM, land use land cover, slope, and soil class in the study area were considered. Results showed that if the DEM is outdated or inaccurate due to changes in the terrain, such as construction, excavation, or erosion, the predicted flood patterns might not reflect the actual water flow. This could result unexpected flood extents and depths, potentially inundating rice fields that were not previously at risk and this, expectedly explained that the increase 1 m in elevation would reduce the rice productivity by 0.17% due to unplanned flood risks in marshland.

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“…However, the Dhaka River basin, which has the most industrial areas and is the capital city of Bangladesh, has no study conducted focusing on historical and future rainfall-runoff estimation by a semi-distributed, physically based model like HEC-HMS. On the other hand, in the past decades, Megacity Dhaka has suffered from heavy floods (1974, 1980, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004, 2007, and 2017), mostly affecting the flood-prone areas of Shitalakhya and Buriganga, resulting in significant devastation (Chowdhury, Zzaman, Tarin, & Hossain, 2022;Fatemi, 2020;Huq et al, 2020). Significant urban growth in the past few decades has increased the area's vulnerability to flooding by increasing the number of waterproofed surfaces (Espada, Apan, & McDougall, 2017;Proverbs & Lamond, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

HEC-HMS-based future streamflow simulation in the Dhaka River Basin under CMIP6 climatologic projections

Islam,

Aziz,

Imran

et al. 2024

Preprint

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This study aims at developing a physically based semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model in the HEC-HMS platform to predict the historical and future stream flow of the Dhaka River basin. This model adopted and integrated several physio-hydrographic parameters as input data, such as LULC, HSG, DEM, observed stream flow, historical and projected future precipitation of the ACCESS-CM2 ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The stream flow predictability of the HEC-HMS is observed subject to the model functions and simulation controls. After developing the model architecture, during calibration, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.78 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.81 were found, which indicates the simulation efficacy of the model setup. Furthermore, in the validation phase, the model demonstrated its robust performance, with R2 = 0.80 and NSE = 0.78. The study showed the predicted yearly peak discharge of about 341685.8 m3/s, 330017.4 m3/s, and 315588.9 m3/s under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Here, the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were conducted to analyze the daily, monthly, and yearly stream flow trends and they substantiate a significant increase in predicted daily streamflow under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios and a gradual increase in monthly discharge in May under the SSP5-8.5, as well as in July and August under the SSP1-2.6. Outcome of this study underscores the model’s robustness and contributes vital perceptions for flood control and mitigation strategies.

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Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh

Cited by 14 publications

References 106 publications

Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Techniques to Derive Flood Risks Management on Rice Productivity in Gishari Marshland

HEC-HMS-based future streamflow simulation in the Dhaka River Basin under CMIP6 climatologic projections

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