Spatial variance of spring phenology in temperate deciduous forests is constrained by background climatic conditions

Peaucelle, Marc; Janssens, Ivan A.; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Descals, Adrià; Fu, Yongshuo H.; Molowny‐Horas, Roberto; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-13365-1

Cited by 85 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The decreasing variation suggests that forest ecosystems were relatively stable during the past several decades. This pattern suggests that the variation of forest ecosystem greenup is mainly driven by temperature, although the impacts of ecological factors light availability, species and tree size 73 , 74 need to be investigated in the future. However, opposite trends in interannual variations were found for greenup onset and spring temperature; this mainly occurred in the Rocky Mountain area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature variability and extremes on spring phenology across the contiguous United States from 1982 to 2016

Liu

Zhang

2020

Sci Rep

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Warming climate and its impact on vegetation phenological trends have been widely investigated. However, interannual variability in temperature is considerably large in recent decades, which is expected to trigger an increasing trend of variation in vegetation phenology. To explore the interannual phenological variation across the contiguous United States (CONUS), we first detected the onset of vegetation greenup using the time series of the daily two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) observed from the AVHRR Long-Term Data Record (1982–1999) and the MODIS Climate Modeling Grid (2000–2016). We then calculated the interannual variation in greenup onset during four decadal periods: 1982–1989, 1990–1999, 2000–2009 and 2010–2016. Further, the trend of interannual variation in greenup onset from 1982 to 2016 was analyzed at pixel and state levels. Extreme phenological events were also determined using a greenup onset anomaly for each pixel. Similar approaches were applied to spring temperatures to detect extreme years and to the temporal trend of interannual variation to explain the phenological variation. The results revealed that 62% of pixels show an increasing interannual variation in greenup onset, and in 44% of pixels, this variation could be explained by the temperature. Although extreme phenology occurred locally in different years, three nationwide extreme phenological years were distinguished. The extreme warm spring that occurred in 2012 resulted in the occurrence of greenup onset as much as 20 days earlier than normal in large parts of the CONUS. In contrast, greenup onset was much later (up to 30 days) in 1983 and 1996 due to cool spring temperatures. These findings suggest that interannual variation in spring phenology could be much stronger in the future in response to climate variation, which could have more significant impacts on terrestrial ecosystems than the regular long-term phenological trend.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of temperature variability and extremes on spring phenology across the contiguous United States from 1982 to 2016

Liu

Zhang

2020

Sci Rep

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“…Some studies, however, have suggested that subfreezing temperatures were effective 36 , 37 , so we also tested chilling models using −10 °C as the lower limit. Many studies have also assumed that freezing temperatures did not contribute to winter CA and only included temperatures >0 °C for calculating CA 11 , 38 . Models C 1 –C 6 were developed based on various combinations of the upper and lower temperature limits.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

et al. 2020

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Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.

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“…Thermal requirements strongly regulate vegetative and reproductive plant development in deciduous forest tree species (Peaucelle et al, 2019;Picornell et al, 2019). The mid-latitudes climate is characterized by successive favorable and non-favorable periods related to a marked seasonality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effects of climate change on the flowering phenology of alder trees in southwestern Europe

et al. 2021

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Global warming impacts plant phenology and the effect of climate change will be more intensely experienced at the edges of a plant's distribution. This work focuses on Iberian alder's climatic range (Alnus lusitanica Vít, Douda & Mandák). The Iberian Peninsula constitutes the Southwestern edge of the global chorological distribution of European black alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. s.l.), and some of the warmest and driest conditions for the alder population are located in the center of Spain. The critical temperature-relevant periods that regulate the reproductive phenology of alder were analyzed using a statistical-based method for modeling chilling and forcing accumulation periods in temperate trees. Our results reveal that autumn chilling was the most important thermal accumulation period for alder in a Mediterranean climate while forcing requirements are satisfied in a short period of time. Autumn temperatures were significantly correlated with the timing of flowering, and chill units during this season directly influence start-dates of alder flowering. A positive trend was observed in pollen seasons' timing, meaning a slight delay of alder flowering in central Spain. It coincided with autumn warming during the period 2004-2018. If this warming trend continues, our results predict a delay in the start-date of flowering by around 3-days for every degree increase in maximum autumn temperatures according to the most optimistic emission scenarios.

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Spatial variance of spring phenology in temperate deciduous forests is constrained by background climatic conditions

Cited by 85 publications

References 61 publications

Effects of temperature variability and extremes on spring phenology across the contiguous United States from 1982 to 2016

Effects of temperature variability and extremes on spring phenology across the contiguous United States from 1982 to 2016

Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling

The effects of climate change on the flowering phenology of alder trees in southwestern Europe

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