Spatial variation in non-marital fertility across Europe: recent trends, past path dependencies, and potential future pathways

Abstract

This article investigates spatiotemporal variation of non-marital fertility across Europe over the last 100 years. In the first 50 years of this period, non-marital fertility was generally declining, reaching very low levels in the mid-20 th century. This was followed by dramatic increases starting in the 1960s. The main aim of this paper is to investigate to what degree historical path dependencies might be relevant for understanding spatial aspects of the recent rise. A secondary aim it so explore prospects for future spatial non-marital fertility variation between and within countries. To investigate historic path dependencies, spatial variation patterns in 1910, 1960, 1975, 1990, and 2007 are compared. The outcomes support the view that historical pattern are relevant for understanding current non-marital fertility variation in most parts of Europe. However, the persistence of the past varies spatially, and seems to fade over time. In terms of future spatial variation between countries, the analysis suggests that an eastwest dichotomy is currently emerging as particularly non-EU member countries with Orthodox Christian or Muslim traditions exhibit higher propensities to remain at or return to comparatively low levels. Within Northwestern Europe, suburban belts around big cities appear to emerge as the last strongholds of marital fertility.