Spatial variations of the fractal properties of seismicity in the Anatolian fault zones

Öncel, Ali Osman; Main, Ian; Alptekin, Ömer; Cowie, P. A.

doi:10.1016/0040-1951(95)00132-8

Cited by 71 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Because seismicity precursors have been tested over many years and some positive examples have been obtained (Kossobokov and Keilis -Borok 1990;Sobolev andTyupkin 1997 1999;Wyss and Martirosyan 1998;Wyss and Matsumura 2002;˙Ȯ ncel and Wyss 2000;˙Ȯ ncel and Wilson 2002;˙Ȯ ncel et al 1996;Sobolev et al 2002;Huang and Nagao 2002;, seismicity analysis plays an important role in earthquake prediction in the intermediate-term.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismicity Pattern Changes Prior to Large Earthquakes An Approach of the RTL Algorithm

Huang¹

2004

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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1Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing100871, China *Corresponding author address: Prof. Qinghua Huang, Computational Geodynamics Laboratory, Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing, China; E-mail: huangq@pku.edu.cn A statistical method, which is called the Region-Time-Length (RTL) algorithm and takes into account information such as magnitude, occurrence time and place of earthquakes, was applied to earthquake data to investigate seismicity pattern changes prior to large earthquakes. Based on the RTL algorithm and some newly developed parameters such as the Qparameter (average of the RTL values over some time window) and S-parameter (an index of seismic activation), I quantified both the temporal and spatial characteristics of seismicity pattern changes in various tectonic regions. The results indicated that seismic quiescence anomalies generally started a few years before the occurrence of the earthquakes and lasted from 1 to 2.5 years. The duration of the subsequent stage of seismic activation generally lasted several months. The linear dimension of the quiescence zone reached a few hundred kilometers (several times the rupture dimension of the mainshock), while the activation zone was generally in order of several tens of kilometers (comparable to the rupture dimension). An earthquake is most likely to occur once the relevant source region has passed through the quiescence and activation stages. Close investigation of possible artifacts due to the selection of model parameters and the changes of seismological networks are important in identifying real seismicity changes from man-made ones. Further stochastic testing using random earthquake catalogs was also done and it supports that the anomalies revealed in my works are significant. Besides studying on seismicity changes before large earthquakes, I also performed the first test of the above statistical method for investigating seismicity changes of earthquake swarms. It indicated that an increased RTL parameter would be a new potentially useful index for the risk alarm of earthquake swarms.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismicity Pattern Changes Prior to Large Earthquakes An Approach of the RTL Algorithm

Huang¹

2004

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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“…See Figure 7 for the location of the cross sections. of greater material of heterogeneity are characterized by high b value but the areas of low degree of material heterogeneity by low b value (MOGı, 1962;HATZıDıMıTRıOU et al, 1985;MAIN et al, 1992;MANAKOU and TSAPANOS, 2000), iii) the low b value is related to the spacing and clustering properties of epicenters or distribution of fault segments (HUANG and TURCOTTE, 1988;ONCEL et al, 1996;LAPENNA et al, 1998;NANJO et al, 1998), and iv) volcanic regions and areas of high thermal gradients are characterized by high b-values (WARREN and LATHAM, 1970;WIEMER et al, 1998;KATSUMATA, 2006). The choice of the statistical method used for deriving the a and b values in the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation is a critical consideration.…”

Section: Analysis Of B-valuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interpretation of Low Seismicity in the Eastern Anatolian Collisional Zone Using Geophysical (Seismicity and Aeromagnetic) and Geological Data

Dolmaz

Elitok

Kalyoncuoğlu

2008

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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The eastern Anatolia is a continental collisional zone between the Arabia-Eurasia plates and is currently being accompanied by the westward escape of the Anatolian crustal block to the west-southwest along two major strike-slip fault zones, the NATF and the EATF. Although these major fault zones have experienced historical earthquakes with moderate to high magnitude, notably there is a low seismicity zone on the active EATF between the Bitlis and Pötürge massifs. The low seismicity zone is characterized by thinner crustal structure relative to its environs, the shallow Curie Point Depth (SCPD, ca 12-14 km in between 39-40°E and 38.5-39°N in the easternmost part of the Anatolian plate) and moderate to high b values (more than 0.7). We consider that the shallow CPD and moderate to high b values in the low seismicity zone characterized by thinner crustal area are closely related with the higher thermal structure of the crust, which most probably resulted from crust-hot asthenospheric mantle interactions.

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“…This implies that the fractal methods seem to be very adequate in order to understand and characterize these complex phenomena. In this context, tectonic processes are generally considered to display fractal properties [8,13]. Identifying whether the time-occurrences of earthquakes are independent on each other or not, leads to the assessment of the statistical distribution ruling the event occurrence, and the complexity of the earthquake dynamics has been revealed in both short and long time-scale ranges [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detrended fluctuation analysis of the spatial variability of the temporal distribution of Southern California seismicity

Telesca

Cuomo

Lapenna

et al. 2004

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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Spatial variations of the fractal properties of seismicity in the Anatolian fault zones

Cited by 71 publications

References 24 publications

Seismicity Pattern Changes Prior to Large Earthquakes An Approach of the RTL Algorithm

Seismicity Pattern Changes Prior to Large Earthquakes An Approach of the RTL Algorithm

Interpretation of Low Seismicity in the Eastern Anatolian Collisional Zone Using Geophysical (Seismicity and Aeromagnetic) and Geological Data

Detrended fluctuation analysis of the spatial variability of the temporal distribution of Southern California seismicity

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