Spatially Distinct Seasonal Patterns and Forcings of the U.S. Warming Hole

Partridge, T.; Winter, Jonathan M.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

doi:10.1002/2017gl076463

Cited by 53 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Of our 77 "stationary" COAs, 45 occur east of −100°W longitude and fall approximately within the warming hole as mapped by Partridge et al (2018). Though our cooling trend is significant, the slope of this relationship is very small, representing a 0.26°C cooling over the 26year time period (Table 1).…”

Section: Impacts On Migration Distancesmentioning

confidence: 70%

“…This large area of declining temperatures is referred to as the U.S. “warming hole” (Pan et al, ). The “warming hole” is likely the product of increased temperatures in the Arctic and the cool air of melting of sea ice being driven southward by air currents, creating cooler than expected temperatures in parts of the United States during the winter (Partridge et al, ). Of our 77 “stationary” COAs, 45 occur east of −100°W longitude and fall approximately within the warming hole as mapped by Partridge et al ().…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The “warming hole” is likely the product of increased temperatures in the Arctic and the cool air of melting of sea ice being driven southward by air currents, creating cooler than expected temperatures in parts of the United States during the winter (Partridge et al, ). Of our 77 “stationary” COAs, 45 occur east of −100°W longitude and fall approximately within the warming hole as mapped by Partridge et al (). Though our cooling trend is significant, the slope of this relationship is very small, representing a 0.26°C cooling over the 26‐year time period (Table ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The "warming hole" is likely the product of increased temperatures in the Arctic and the cool air of melting of sea ice being driven southward by air currents, creating cooler than expected temperatures in parts of the United States during the winter (Partridge et al, 2018).…”

Section: Impacts On Migration Distancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Curley

Manne

Veit

2020

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim For many migratory avian species, winter and breeding habitats occur at geographically distinct locations. Disparate magnitudes and direction of shifts in wintering and breeding locations could lead to altered migration distances. We investigated how shifts in the centre of abundance (COA) of winter and breeding ranges have changed for 77 species of short‐distance migratory birds. We addressed whether species tracked their historical average temperature and precipitation conditions at their winter and breeding COA, using data from 1990 to 2015. Location North America. Methods We calculated the COA for winter and breeding ranges from the National Audubon Society's Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. We regressed the annual change in distance (km) between the two annual COAs of each species as a proxy for change in migration distance. We constructed a series of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to evaluate changes in average temperature and precipitation at the wintering and breeding COAs. Results Winter shifts in COA were predominantly northward. For most species, average temperature and precipitation that species experienced had not changed. Breeding shifts in COA varied in direction. For breeding season COAs, average temperature warmed, but average precipitation had not changed. Thirty‐one species significantly decreased their migration distances, mainly driven by northward shifts in the winter range. Ten species increased their migration distances. Main conclusions Winter and breeding range shifts in COA have not occurred at the same magnitude and direction and have therefore impacted migration distance. Our results suggest that wintering and breeding range shifts occur independently and under different climate pressures.

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Section: Impacts On Migration Distancesmentioning

confidence: 70%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Impacts On Migration Distancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Curley

Manne

Veit

2020

Diversity and Distributions

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“…, Partridge et al. ). In addition, we note that the weather stations we used to identify trends in this subregion were located toward the southern portion of the study area.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Contosta

Casson

Garlick³

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Winter is an understudied but key period for the socioecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid‐ and high‐latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here, we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross‐cutting understanding of (1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and (2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector‐borne diseases, and human health, recreation, and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socioecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

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Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

Harrod

Rolland

2020

Population Ecology

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As climate change continues to alter temperature and precipitation patterns, numerous species have declined. However, populations of some species that show responses to climate change, such as eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis), have increased or remained stable nationwide. To understand how species are adapting to climate change, we estimated demographic parameters and their responses to climatic variability, using nesting and banding-recapture data between 2003 and 2018 in a northeastern Arkansas eastern bluebird population. Increasing variability in precipitation in the nonbreeding season negatively affected hatchability. Hatching success was negatively affected by increasing variability in maximum temperatures and the number of hot days during the breeding season, but positively affected by increasing winter snow depth. Adult survival was positively affected by increasing snow depth and variability in the number of hot days during the breeding season, but negatively affected by increasing variability in nonbreeding season temperatures. Our results demonstrate that for this study population, annual breeding parameters, though canalized against interannual environmental variation, were affected by seasonal climatic variability. Although climate change may benefit

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Spatially Distinct Seasonal Patterns and Forcings of the U.S. Warming Hole

Cited by 53 publications

References 49 publications

Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Differential winter and breeding range shifts: Implications for avian migration distances

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

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