Spatio-temporal analysis of tuberculosis in eastern Qinghai Province, China, 2013-2022

Abstract

Objective: Tuberculosis (TB) represents a significant public health challenge among infectious diseases, and Qinghai Province is notable for its high TB notification rates in China. However, there is currently no detailed analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns of TB at the township level. This study aims to investigate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of TB epidemics in Haidong City, with the goal of implementing targeted interventions to address the TB epidemic. Methods: The study described the distribution of cases by age, sex, and occupation. Global spatial autocorrelation statistics, local spatial autocorrelation statistics, and spatiotemporal scanning techniques were employed to analyze the temporal series and spatial clustering of tuberculosis notifications in Haidong City from 2013 to 2022, identifying spatiotemporal clusters. We also utilized a spatial panel model to investigate potential associated factors. Results: This study included a total of 9,377 cases from 2013 to 2022. The total PTB registration rate shows an increase and then decrease, starting with a significant decrease from 2018 (100.93/100,000) − 2022 (42.21/100,000). Men and individuals in farming occupations were the predominant groups among TB patients. Registered cases peaked during the spring and summer months and decreased during the fall and winter seasons. During the study period, the Moran's I global statistic ranged from 0.0312 to 0.2843, indicating spatial autocorrelation. The primary hotspots are predominantly situated in the central and southern regions. Spatiotemporal scanning identified one most likely cluster and five secondary clusters, primarily concentrated in the southern region. These findings align closely with those observed in hotspots regions, and this clustering persisted through the end of 2022. Conclusions: TB remains a significant public health challenge in Haidong. The incidence of tuberculosis in Haidong City, Qinghai Province, exhibited a seasonal pattern, with lower rates peaking in spring and higher rates in winter. Analysis of PTB registration data indicated that hotspots were predominantly concentrated in the central and southeastern regions. The persistent presence of high-risk areas underscores the necessity for targeted prevention and control strategies.