Spatio-temporal behaviour of Nehnar Glacier from 1962 to 2017, Jhelum basin, Kashmir Himalayas, India

Shafiq, Mifta ul; Islam, Zahoor Ul; Bhat, Irshad Ahmad; Ahmed, Pervez

doi:10.1080/02723646.2019.1706704

Cited by 18 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…(Kenyon and Hegerl, 2010) The results of wet-dry event characteristics (duration, severity, intensity) at pixel basis outline the greater susceptibility of westerlies dominated region towards dry events with higher duration, severity, and intensity. The 390 dryer conditions in this region could be explained with the increasing rates of global warming over mountainous region of the basin, also reported by many researchers (Rashid et al, 2020, Shafiq et al, 2020, Zaz et al, 2019.…”

supporting

confidence: 75%

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Wet-dry Event Features and their Transition across Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB)-South Asia

Ansari

Grossi

2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The increasing rate of extreme events (Droughts and floods) and their rapid transition magnifies the associated socio-economic impacts than the individual event. Understanding of spatio-temporal evolution of wet-dry events collectively, their characteristics and transition (wet to dry and dry to wet) is therefore significant to identify and locate most vulnerable hotspots, providing the basis for the adaptation and mitigation measures. The Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB)-South Asia was selected as a case study, where the relevance of wet-dry events and their transition have not been assessed yet, despite of clear evidence of climate change in the region. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the monthly time scale was applied to detect and characterize wet and dry events for the period 1981–2014. The results of temporal variations of SPEI showed a strong change in basin climatic features associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the end of 1997, with the prevalence of wet and dry events before and after 1997 respectively. The results of spatial analysis show a higher susceptibility of the monsoon-dominated region towards wet events, with more intense events occurring in the eastern part, whereas a higher severity and duration is featuring in the southwestern part of the basin. In contrast, westerlies-dominated region was found to be the hotspot of dry events with higher duration, severity, and intensity. Moreover, the surrounding region of the Himalaya divide line and the monsoon-dominated part of the basin were found to be the hotspots of rapid wet-dry transition events.

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supporting

confidence: 75%

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Wet-dry Event Features and their Transition across Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB)-South Asia

Ansari

Grossi

2021

Preprint

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“…Results show that the northeast part of the region, located at the foothills of the Western Himalayas, is found to be more affected by wet and dry events with higher sever-ity and duration (see the upper left panel in each figure). The higher susceptibility of the region towards more extreme events could be explained with the increasing rates of global warming over mountainous region, i.e., Western Himalayas, also reported by many researchers (Pachauri et al, 2014;Zaz et al, 2019;Rashid et al, 2020;Shafiq et al, 2020;Ansari and Grossi, 2022). Studies by Negi et al (2018) and Dimri and Dash (2012) also confirm that most of the Western Himalayan region recorded a significant warming trend especially from 1975 onwards.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Spei Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 54%

Evaluation of bias correction methods for a multivariate drought index: case study of the Upper Jhelum Basin

Ansari¹,

Casanueva²,

Liaqat³

et al. 2023

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. Bias correction (BC) is often a necessity to improve the applicability of global and regional climate model (GCM and RCM, respectively) outputs to impact assessment studies, which usually depend on multiple potentially dependent variables. To date, various BC methods have been developed which adjust climate variables separately (univariate BC) or jointly (multivariate BC) prior to their application in impact studies (i.e., the component-wise approach). Another possible approach is to first calculate the multivariate hazard index from the original, biased simulations and bias-correct the impact model output or index itself using univariate methods (direct approach). This has the advantage of circumventing the difficulties associated with correcting the inter-variable dependence of climate variables which is not considered by univariate BC methods. Using a multivariate drought index (i.e., standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index – SPEI) as an example, the present study compares different state-of-the-art BC methods (univariate and multivariate) and BC approaches (direct and component-wise) applied to climate model simulations stemming from different experiments at different spatial resolutions (namely Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), CORDEX Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE), and 6th Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)). The BC methods are calibrated and evaluated over the same historical period (1986–2005). The proposed framework is demonstrated as a case study over a transboundary watershed, i.e., the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in the Western Himalayas. Results show that (1) there is some added value of multivariate BC methods over the univariate methods in adjusting the inter-variable relationship; however, comparable performance is found for SPEI indices. (2) The best-performing BC methods exhibit a comparable performance under both approaches with a slightly better performance for the direct approach. (3) The added value of the high-resolution experiments (CORDEX-CORE) compared to their coarser-resolution counterparts (CORDEX) is not apparent in this study.

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“…The Harmukh glacier, the largest glacier in the entire range, lost an area of 0.34 km 2 (10 ± 0.88%), with a snout retreat of 187 m observed during the 28-year study period [136]. The other individual glacier studies across the Kashmir Himalayan basin have shown a retreating pattern; for example, Nehnar glacier has shown a retreat of 1.41 km 2 (50.35%) during 55 years [84], and the Kolahoi glacier lost an area of 23% since 1962 [137], Bodpathri glacier lost 0.5 km 2 (19.5%) during the past 56 years Ahmad et al [82]. Additionally, glacier area loss, snout retreat, and length changes have been reported in various glaciers of the central and eastern Himalayas.…”

Section: Glacier and Lake Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Glacier ice thickness estimation is generally obtained through mathematical equations, for example, volume-area scaling [81][82][83][84]. In this study, the depth of the Harmukh glacier was calculated using the GlabTop-2 model.…”

Section: Glacier Depthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

et al. 2022

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Climate warming-induced glacier recession has resulted in the development and rapid expansion of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. The increased melting has enhanced the susceptibility for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the region. The catastrophic failure of potentially dangerous glacial lakes could be detrimental to human life and infrastructure in the adjacent low-lying areas. This study attempts to assess the GLOF hazard of Gangabal lake, located in the Upper Jhelum basin of Kashmir Himalaya, using the combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS, and dam break modeling. The parameters, such as area change, ice thickness, mass balance, and surface velocity of the Harmukh glacier, which feeds Gangabal lake, were also assessed using multitemporal satellite data, GlabTop-2, and the Cosi–Corr model. In the worst-case scenario, 100% volume (73 × 106 m3) of water was considered to be released from the lake with a breach formation time (bf) of 40 min, breach width (bw) of 60 m, and producing peak discharge of 16,601.03 m3/s. Our results reveal that the lake area has increased from 1.42 km2 in 1972 to 1.46 km2 in 1981, 1.58 km2 in 1992, 1.61 km2 in 2001, 1.64 km2 in 2010, and 1.66 km2 in 2020. The lake area experienced 17 ± 2% growth from 1972 to 2020 at an annual rate of 0.005 km2. The feeding glacier (Harmukh) contrarily indicated a significant area loss of 0.7 ± 0.03 km2 from 1990 (3.36 km2) to 2020 (2.9 km2). The glacier has a maximum, minimum, and average depth of 85, 7.3, and 23.46 m, respectively. In contrast, the average velocity was estimated to be 3.2 m/yr with a maximum of 7 m/yr. The results obtained from DEM differencing show an average ice thickness loss of 11.04 ± 4.8 m for Harmukh glacier at the rate of 0.92 ± 0.40 m/yr between 2000 and 2012. Assessment of GLOF propagation in the worst-case scenario (scenario-1) revealed that the maximum flood depth varies between 3.87 and 68 m, the maximum flow velocity between 4 and 75 m/s, and the maximum water surface elevation varies between 1548 and 3536 m. The resultant flood wave in the worst-case scenario will reach the nearest location (Naranaag temple) within 90 min after breach initiation with a maximum discharge of 12,896.52 m3 s−1 and maximum flood depth and velocity of 10.54 m and 10.05 m/s, respectively. After evaluation of GLOF impacts on surrounding areas, the area under each inundated landuse class was estimated through the LULC map generated for both scenarios 1 and 2. In scenario 1, the total potentially inundated area was estimated as 5.3 km2, which is somewhat larger than 3.46 km2 in scenario 2. We suggest a location-specific comprehensive investigation of Gangbal lake and Harmukh glacier by applying the advanced hazard and risk assessment models/methods for better predicting a probable future GLOF event.

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Spatio-temporal behaviour of Nehnar Glacier from 1962 to 2017, Jhelum basin, Kashmir Himalayas, India

Cited by 18 publications

References 77 publications

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Wet-dry Event Features and their Transition across Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB)-South Asia

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Wet-dry Event Features and their Transition across Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB)-South Asia

Evaluation of bias correction methods for a multivariate drought index: case study of the Upper Jhelum Basin

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

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