Spatio-temporal distribution and prediction of agricultural and meteorological drought in a Mediterranean coastal watershed via GIS and machine learning

Acharki, Siham; Singh, Sudhir Kumar; Couto, Edivando Vitor do; Arjdal, Youssef; Elbeltagi, Ahmed

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2023.103425

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 82 publications

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“…The years 2001, 2004, 2007, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 stand out as the most severe drought periods. These results corroborate the observations of various authors, cited in several works across different regions of Morocco [46,[50][51][52], such as the Oum Er-Rbia river basin [53], northwest Morocco [54], the Sebou basin [55], and the Souss basin [56]. These regions, characterized by their semi-arid, arid, and Mediterranean climatic characteristics, have been the focus of previous research, which has also highlighted particularly dry years, in line with our findings.…”

Section: Drought Assessment Using Various Indicessupporting

confidence: 93%

Toward a Redefinition of Agricultural Drought Periods—A Case Study in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Region

Oukaddour,

Le Page,

Fakir

2023

Remote Sensing

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Drought is a powerful natural hazard that has significant effects on ecosystems amid the constant threats posed by climate change. This study investigates agricultural drought in a semi-arid Mediterranean basin through the interconnections among four indices: precipitation (meteorological reanalysis), vegetation development, thermal stress, and soil water deficit (remote sensing observations). While drought seems to be a clear concept with effective assessment tools (e.g., SPI and SPEI), the definition of drought periods is blurrier. This article examines the main drivers of agricultural drought, precipitation, soil moisture deficit, incipient vegetation development, and rising soil surface temperature. Their temporal connections in various agrosystems of the basin and the determination of drought periods by revisiting the run theory were investigated. The Pearson correlations at different spatial scales showed a medium to low level of agreement between the indices, which was explained by the geographical heterogeneity and the climatic variability between the agrosystems within the basin. It was also shown that the cascade of impacts expected from lower precipitations was revealed by the cross-correlation analysis. The connection between precipitation deficit and vegetation remains significant for at least one month for most pairs of indices, especially during drought events, suggesting that agricultural drought spells can be connected in time through the three or four selected indices. Short-, mid-, and long-term impacts of precipitation deficiencies on soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature were revealed. As expected, the more instantaneous variables of soil moisture and surface temperature showed no lag with precipitation. Vegetation anomalies at the monthly time step showed a two-month lag with a preceding effect of vegetation to precipitation. Finally, the determination of drought events and stages with varying thresholds on the run theory showed large variability in duration, magnitude, and intensity according to the choice of both normality and dryness thresholds.

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Section: Drought Assessment Using Various Indicessupporting

confidence: 93%

Toward a Redefinition of Agricultural Drought Periods—A Case Study in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Region

Oukaddour,

Le Page,

Fakir

2023

Remote Sensing

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“…The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as introduced by McKee et al [42] and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) developed by Vicente-Serrano et al [43] have been widely applied for drought analysis [56][57][58][59]. SPI assumes that drought emanates from a reduction in rainfall rather than water demand and, therefore, is more closely linked to variability in water cycles.…”

Section: Drought Indices Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing Temporal Patterns of Temperature, Precipitation, and Drought Incidents: A Comprehensive Study of Environmental Trends in the Upper Draa Basin, Morocco

El Qorchi,

Yacoubi Khebiza,

Omondi

et al. 2023

Water

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Quantifying variation in precipitation and drought in the context of a changing climate is important to assess climate-induced changes and propose feasible mitigation strategies, particularly in agrarian economies. This study investigates the main characteristics and historical drought trend for the period 1980–2016 using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), Run Theory and Mann–Kendall Trend Test at seven stations across the Upper Draa Basin. The results indicate that rainfall has the largest magnitude over the M’semrir and Agouim (>218 mm/pa) and the lowest in the Agouilal, Mansour Eddahbi Dam, and Assaka subregions (104 mm–134 mm/pa). The annual rainfall exhibited high variability with a coefficient of variation between 35−57% and was positively related to altitude with a correlation coefficient of 0.86. However, no significant annual rainfall trend was detected for all stations. The drought analysis results showed severe drought in 1981–1984, 2000–2001, and 2013–2014, with 2001 being the driest year during the study period and over 75% of both SPEI and SPI values returned drought. Conversely, wet years were experienced in 1988–1990 and 2007–2010, with 1989 being the wettest year. The drought frequency was low (<19%) across all the timescales considered for both SPI and SPEI, with Mansour Eddahbi Dam and Assaka recording the highest frequencies for SPI-3 and SPEI-3, respectively.

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“…Climate change has led to changes in the intensity and frequency of drought putting pressures on water resources in many countries [1]. This risk is poised to amplify due to the shift towards increasingly warmer and drier conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To accurately quantify and monitor droughts, several indices have been developed. A commonly adopted drought indicator is the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) [8], as advised by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [1,9]. This index gauges the intensity and duration of droughts, besides providing insight into their severity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection analysis of future drought characteristics in Upper Draa Catchment (Southern Morocco)

El Qorchi,

Khebiza,

Omondi

et al. 2024

E3S Web Conf.

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The consequences of global warming will aggravate the impacts of droughts. Future drought patterns are important for planning and policy formulation to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. Consequently, this study aims at examining the projected the drought characteristics in seven meteorological stations in the Upper Draa Catchment (UDC) during the period from 1980 to 2016 using standardized precipitation index. The future climate scenarios were predicted by the model CNRM-ALADIN63 for three periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, and 2075–2099). The changes were examined based on two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios, namely: RCP4.5and RCP8.5. The findings indicated that increasingly extreme droughts are anticipated to occur during (2050-2074) followed by (2025-2049) than (2075-2099) under both scenarios. The results reveal a contrast in drought event frequency between historical data and projections with a noticeable variation of patterns of droughts characteristics across stations and time periods. This accentuates how urgent it is for the Upper Draa Catchment to implement proactive water resource management and adaptive strategies.

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Spatio-temporal distribution and prediction of agricultural and meteorological drought in a Mediterranean coastal watershed via GIS and machine learning

Cited by 13 publications

References 82 publications

Toward a Redefinition of Agricultural Drought Periods—A Case Study in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Region

Toward a Redefinition of Agricultural Drought Periods—A Case Study in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Region

Analyzing Temporal Patterns of Temperature, Precipitation, and Drought Incidents: A Comprehensive Study of Environmental Trends in the Upper Draa Basin, Morocco

Projection analysis of future drought characteristics in Upper Draa Catchment (Southern Morocco)

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