Spatio-temporal distribution of flood disasters and analysis of influencing factors in Africa

Li, Chan-juan; Chai, Yunfeng; Yang, Linsheng; Li, Hairong

doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2181-8

Cited by 89 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Kenya tends to experience increased rainfall during the rainy seasons and is prone to flooding during El Niño episodes. Heavy rainfall events caused landslides in 1997-1998 in several areas of Kenya Ngecu and Mathu (1999), Li et al (2016), Mutemi (2003), Muthama et al (2014) Coastal ecosystems…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

Fortnam

Atkins²,

Brown

et al. 2020

Ambio

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The 2015-2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a 'non-event'. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015-2016 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. Using a socialecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.

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Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

Fortnam

Atkins²,

Brown

et al. 2020

Ambio

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“…The economy of the region is heavily dependent on rainfall. The region is one of the most drought and flood-prone areas in Africa (Li et al 2016), where extreme events have been causing devastating effects on the populations of the region. Local factors such as complex terrain, large inland water bodies (Lake Victoria) and land heterogeneity (with the highest peak of Africa, mount Kilimanjaro) and their consequent interactions with large-scale climate forcing mechanisms, contribute to the diverse spatial rainfall patterns over the region.…”

Section: Overview Of Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Osima

Indasi

Zaroug

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

116

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We analyze the potential effect of global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 • C and 2 • C above pre-industrial levels (1861−1890) on mean temperature and precipitation as well as intra-seasonal precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa. We used a large, 25-member regional climate model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment and show that, compared to the control period of 1971−2000, annual mean near-surface temperature is projected to increase by more than 1 • C and 1.5 • C over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, under GWLs of 1.5 • C and 2 • C respectively. The highest temperature increases are projected in the northern region, covering most parts of Sudan and northern parts of Ethiopia, and the lowest temperature increases are projected over the coastal belt of Tanzania. However, the projected mean surface temperature difference between 2 • C and 1. 5 • C GWLs is higher than 0.5 • C over nearly all land points, reaching 0.8 • C over Sudan and northern Ethiopia. This implies that the Greater Horn of Africa will warm faster than the global mean.While projected changes in precipitation are mostly uncertain across the Greater Horn of Africa, there is a substantial decrease over the central and northern parts of Ethiopia. Additionally, the length of dry and wet spells is projected to increase and decrease respectively. The combined effect of a reduction in rainfall and the changes in the wet and dry spells will likely impact negatively on the livelihoods of people within the coastal cities, lake regions, highlands as well as arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan. The probable impacts of these changes on key sectors such as agriculture, water, energy and health sectors, will likely call for formulation of actionable policies geared towards adaptation and mitigation of the impacts of 1.5 • C and 2 • C warming.

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“…Global meta‐analysis of the relationship between forest cover and flooding by Bradshaw et al () and Van Dijk et al () does not conclusively identify forest cover as a significant predictor of hydrologic extremes, with most flooding reports explained well solely by population density. In a series of regional studies, Li et al (), Bhattacharjee and Behera (), Brookhuis and Hein (), and Tan‐soo et al () present evidence in the form of meta‐analyses of land cover and flooding records that deforestation results in an increased frequency of socioeconomic flood loss in Africa, India, Trinidad, and Malaysia, respectively. In a similar study, Brogna et al () demonstrated only a slight influence of forest cover on flood frequency in Belgium.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Increases in Flood Frequency Due to the Loss of Eastern Hemlock in the Northeastern United States: Observational Insights and Predicted Impacts

Knighton

Conneely

Walter

2019

Water Resources Research

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Trees exert a fundamental control on the hydrologic cycle, yet previous research is unclear about the nuanced relationship between forest cover and riverine flood frequency. In the Northeastern United States, warming air temperatures have resulted in a decline of Eastern Hemlock (EH), and subsequent increases in observed catchment water yield. We evaluated the possibility of EH loss leading to a changed flooding regime. We first investigated plant hydraulic regulation by root water uptake in EH and American Beech (AB; a candidate successional species) through stable isotope analysis of stream, soil water, and plant xylem water. EH xylem water showed evidence of deeper soil water uptake than AB during both wet and dry seasons, suggesting species succession may be an important mechanism for altering catchment “plant accessible water.” Next, we estimated catchment flood frequency with mechanistic hydrologic simulations for present conditions, and two hypothetical cases where all EH is succeeded by AB. The largest change to catchment extreme discharge after AB succession coincided with fall season tropical moisture export‐derived precipitation. We observed reduced sensitivity under future climatic forcing with an ensemble simulation of five localized constructed analogs downscaled general circulation models. Thus, the influence of forest composition on the flood regime may be most related to the temporal alignment of the synoptic‐scale processes that generate Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones and regional plant phenology of the Northeast United States. Our results provide a justification for using physically based hydrologic models incorporating plant hydraulic regulation when evaluating future flooding frequency.

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Spatio-temporal distribution of flood disasters and analysis of influencing factors in Africa

Cited by 89 publications

References 11 publications

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

Multiple impact pathways of the 2015–2016 El Niño in coastal Kenya

Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Possible Increases in Flood Frequency Due to the Loss of Eastern Hemlock in the Northeastern United States: Observational Insights and Predicted Impacts

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