Spatio-temporal dynamics of climate change, land degradation, and water insecurity in an arid rangeland: The Río San Miguel watershed, Sonora, Mexico

Lee, Ryan H.; Navarro, Luis Alan Navarro; Ley, América Lutz; Hartfield, Kyle; Tolleson, Douglas R.; Scott, Christopher A.

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2021.104539

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…In this study, we generated the future precipitation layers considering a 100 mm (approximately 20%) reduction in precipitation for northern Mexico [97][98][99], where existing populations of G. thurberi occur. Observed climatic changes in the Sonoran Desert region include warming temperatures and precipitation deficits [96], increased drought frequency, and a higher number of heat-stress days, signaling an arid, water-constrained climate [103] that is expected to remain, if not intensify, in the near and mid future. Severe drought has already been reported in Sonora and Chihuahua and the rest of the northern region [104,105].…”

Section: Potential Impact Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

et al. 2022

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Gossypium thurberi, a threatened wild cotton species native to northern Mexico and southwestern USA, is globally important because its agronomic traits can be introgressed into cultivated species to improve fiber quality and resistance to biotic and abiotic stressors. However, studies on the current and future potential distribution of the species are scarce. The objectives of this study were (1) to develop a distribution model of G thurberi using a Geographic Information System platform, (2) determine environmental factors that influence the current distribution of the species in Mexico, and (3) estimate the potential distribution of the species under current and future climates. We analyzed the following variables: Annual Available Soil Water (mm year−1, AASW), Flowering Growing Degree Days (FGDD), absolute minimum temperature (°C, Tminabs), and altitude (amsl, ALT). Results showed that the current potential distribution of G. thurberi in northern Mexico, estimated at 112,727 square kilometers, is projected to be drastically reduced by 77 and 86%, considering a possible increase in temperature of 1.5 °C and 2 °C in near-future (2021–2040) and mid-future (2041–2060) climates, respectively, and a 100 mm reduction in average annual precipitation under both climates. The greatest reduction will be in areas in Sonora (Mexico) adjoining Arizona (USA), where the largest populations of the species are currently reported. AASW, FGDD, and ALT jointly influence the distribution of G. thurberi, with AASW as the dominant factor under future climate change. The areas that may continue to harbor populations of G. thurberi under future climate will present AASW of 0.2–55.6 mm year−1, FGDD of 242–547, and ALT between 550 and 1561 amsl. The projected future potential distribution in the country includes new suitable areas, including one in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, that may serve as refuge areas. The findings can contribute to the design of more precise collection efforts and conservation strategies to prevent species extinction.

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Section: Potential Impact Of Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

et al. 2022

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“…Water insecurity is a growing global concern, driven by factors such as climate change, population growth, and the demands of agriculture, energy, and industry [1][2][3][4][5]. Among various natural disasters, drought stands out as one of the most costly and widespread [3,4,[6][7][8], exacerbating water scarcity and posing significant challenges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Monitoring Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Derived NDVI Anomalies in Northern Algeria from 2011 to 2022

Benhizia,

Phinzi,

Hateffard

et al. 2024

Environments

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Drought has emerged as a major challenge to global food and water security, and is particularly pronounced for Algeria, which frequently grapples with water shortages. This paper sought to monitor and assess the temporal and spatial distribution of drought severity across northern Algeria (excluding the Sahara) during the growing season from 2011 to 2022, while exploring the relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomaly and climate variables (rainfall and temperature). Temporal NDVI data from the Terra moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite covering the period 2000–2022 and climate data from the European Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) datasets collected during the period 1990–2022 were used. The results showed that a considerable portion of northern Algeria has suffered from droughts of varying degrees of severity during the study period. The years 2022, 2021, 2016, and 2018 were the hardest hit, with 76%, 71%, 66%, and 60% of the area, respectively, experiencing drought conditions. While the relationship between the NDVI anomaly and the climatic factors showed variability across the different years, the steady decrease in vegetation health indicated by the NDVI anomaly corroborates the observed increase in drought intensity during the study period. We conclude that the MODIS-NDVI product offers a cost-efficient approach to monitor drought in data-scarce regions like Algeria, presenting a viable alternative to conventional climate-based drought indices, while serving as an initial step towards formulating drought mitigation plans.

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“…A large extent of Middle East arid rangelands is degraded due to overgrazing, intensive cultivation, collection of fuelwoods, exploitation of herbal and medicinal plants, quarrying activities (Abu‐Zanat et al, 2020) as well as climate change (Godde et al, 2020). However, rangelands still provide a wide range of goods and services, including livestock fodder (FAO, 2017), eventually supporting the livelihood of millions of people (Lee et al, 2021). Sustainable management solutions that increase and stabilize the rural dryland communities' food production and their resilience to shocks are therefore crucial.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling‐based performance assessment of an indigenous macro‐catchment water harvesting technique (Marab) in the Jordanian Badia

et al. 2023

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Water resources management is fundamental for rural communities in drylands, where water harvesting technologies (WHT) can be used for intercepting surface runoff and storing water in soils. The so‐called “Marab” WHT was initially developed by Middle Eastern agro‐pastoralists that reside or commute in semi‐arid and arid rangelands. The Marab WHT is a macro‐catchment measure consisting of earth dams and stone spillways along the contours of a lowland depression or floodplain. Dependent on the local context (i.e., climate, soil, management, etc.), the established Marabs show highly variable effectiveness and little scientific evidence is supporting the scaling out of the technology. This study aims at filling the knowledge gap on the Marab performance in different environments by simulating its hydro‐agrological effects for different soils and climatic conditions using the AquaCrop model. A case study performed for a Jordanian Marab over three seasons (2019–2022) confirms its huge improvement potential for barley production. Through Marab‐based farming, barley production reached 8.37 t ha−1 on average, versus highly variable 0.34 t ha−1 without the WHT. The simulation‐based assessment of soil textures identified that silty soils have the largest potential for producing up to 9.25 t ha−1 barley, compared to 6.60 t ha−1 produced in clay soils. Assessing different climate scenarios, a slight increase in daily average temperatures (+0.5°C) led to a considerable production decline of 4%–8%, while a significant reduction of precipitation (−20%) decreased biomass production by a similar rate (4%–10%). This underlines the robustness of the “Marab” WHT to rainfall amount variation. However, simulations also highlight the sensitivity of timing and frequency of flood events: removing the last and the first flood event reduced biomass production by approximately 50% and 80%, respectively, while the barley fails to develop if both events were suppressed.

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Spatio-temporal dynamics of climate change, land degradation, and water insecurity in an arid rangeland: The Río San Miguel watershed, Sonora, Mexico

Cited by 16 publications

References 54 publications

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

Loss and Gain in Potential Distribution of Threatened Wild Cotton Gossypium thurberi in Mexico under Future Climate

Drought Monitoring Using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Derived NDVI Anomalies in Northern Algeria from 2011 to 2022

Modeling‐based performance assessment of an indigenous macro‐catchment water harvesting technique (Marab) in the Jordanian Badia

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