Spatio-temporal estimation of basic and effective reproduction number of COVID-19 and post-lockdown transmissibility in Bangladesh

Hridoy, Al-Ekram Elahee; Tipo, Imrul Hasan; Sami, Md. Shamsudduha; Babu, Md. Ripon; Ahmed, Md. Sayem; Rahman, Syed Masiur; Tusher, Shekh Md. Shajid Hasan; Rashid, Kazi Jihadur; Naim, Mohammad

doi:10.1007/s41324-021-00409-2

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 44 publications

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“…That is, it satisfies the logistic equation, which suggests staying close to one as long as they maintain the compliance conditions, since, in this last equation, R e = 1 is an equilibrium (i.e., R ′ e = 0) that is globally asymptotically stable. This can be observed in the COVID-19 experience in several countries [25][26][27][28]. This is particularly interesting since we are saying that B has a final equilibrium over the intrinsic equilibrium, which can only be explained by the fact that the prolonged reaction factor changes sign when the reproductive number is below R e = 1.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Influence of the Effective Reproduction Number on the SIR Model with a Dynamic Transmission Rate

Córdova-Lepe,

Gutiérrez-Jara,

Chowell

2024

Mathematics

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In this paper, we examine the epidemiological model B-SIR, focusing on the dynamic law that governs the transmission rate B. We define this dynamic law by the differential equation B′/B=F⊕−F⊖, where F⊖ represents a reaction factor reflecting the stress proportional to the active group’s percentage variation. Conversely, F⊕ is a factor proportional to the deviation of B from its intrinsic value. We introduce the notion of contagion impulse f and explore its role within the model. Specifically, for the case where F⊕=0, we derive an autonomous differential system linking the effective reproductive number with f and subsequently analyze its dynamics. This analysis provides new insights into the model’s behavior and its implications for understanding disease transmission.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 69%

Influence of the Effective Reproduction Number on the SIR Model with a Dynamic Transmission Rate

Córdova-Lepe,

Gutiérrez-Jara,

Chowell

2024

Mathematics

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An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI)

Moore,

Hill,

Emery

et al. 2023

BMC Public Health

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Background Most COVID-19 vulnerability indices rely on measures that are biased by rates of exposure or are retrospective like mortality rates that offer little opportunity for intervention. The Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI) is a precision public health early warning alternative to traditional infection fatality rates that presents avenues for mortality prevention. Methods We produced an infection-severity vulnerability index by calculating the proportion of all recorded positive cases that were severe and attended by ambulances at small area scale for the East Midlands of the UK between May 2020 and April 2022. We produced maps identifying regions with high and low vulnerability, investigated the accuracy of the index over shorter and longer time periods, and explored the utility of the MHVI compared to other common proxy measures and indices. Analysis included exploring the correlation between our novel index and the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). Results The MHVI captures geospatial dynamics that single metrics alone often overlook, including the compound health challenges associated with disadvantaged and declining coastal towns inhabited by communities with post-industrial health legacies. A moderate negative correlation between MHVI and IMD reflects spatial analysis which suggests that high vulnerability occurs in affluent rural as well as deprived coastal and urban communities. Further, the MHVI estimates of severity rates are comparable to infection fatality rates for COVID-19. Conclusions The MHVI identifies regions with known high rates of poor health outcomes prior to the pandemic that case rates or mortality rates alone fail to identify. Pre-hospital early warning measures could be utilised to prevent mortality during a novel pandemic.

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Spatio-temporal estimation of basic and effective reproduction number of COVID-19 and post-lockdown transmissibility in Bangladesh

Cited by 2 publications

References 44 publications

Influence of the Effective Reproduction Number on the SIR Model with a Dynamic Transmission Rate

Influence of the Effective Reproduction Number on the SIR Model with a Dynamic Transmission Rate

An early warning precision public health approach for assessing COVID-19 vulnerability in the UK: the Moore-Hill Vulnerability Index (MHVI)

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