Spatio-temporal evaluation of various global circulation models in terms of projection of different meteorological drought indices

Balov, Mustafa Nuri; Altunkaynak, Abdüsselam

doi:10.1007/s12665-020-8881-0

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Studies show that using an appropriate bias correction method can enhance the outputs of the GCMs [35][36][37][38][39][40][41] and as a result, a better understanding of the future climate condition. In this research, the linear scaling bias correction method was adopted to the daily projected precipitation values (the detailed information about the method can be found in [42]). This method is a staticallybased method.…”

Section: Study Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

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Section: Study Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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“…On a global scale, there are humid, semihumid, semiarid, and arid areas all over the world. On a regional scale, Mohammadi et al (2020) found that extreme drought events occurred in the eastern Andes; Nuri Balov and Altunkaynak (2020) found that the drought characteristics of the West Black Sea and the Euphrates River basin in Turkey have a certain correlation with elevation. These studies have fully analyzed the spatial variation characteristics of drought and preliminarily explored the relationship between drought and elevation, but the research on the role of longitude and latitude is insufficient [since meteorological elements such as precipitation are related to longitude and latitude (Yu et al, 2018), it is necessary to study the relationship between drought and longitude and latitude]; in addition, there are few studies on the zonal patterns of drought.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zonal Patterns of Meteorological Drought on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China

Wang

Yang³

2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Drought is a natural phenomenon caused by a shortage of water resources and has a great impact on agriculture, the economy, and the environment. To study the Spatio-temporal distribution and explore the zonal patterns of drought, this paper took the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP) as the research region, selected the air temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, and precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations on the YGP. First, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated, and then the Spatio-temporal distribution of YGP drought was analyzed with the SPEI, Mann–Kendall test, and principal component analysis (PCA). Finally, the correlations between the average SPEI, drought characteristics extracted from the SPEI, and longitude/elevation/latitude were analyzed with the linear regression method, and then the zonal patterns of the YGP drought were obtained. The results revealed that the annual and seasonal SPEI values mainly decreased. Because the first component of the SPEI (the largest eigenvalue makes it the most important component) in annual and winter had a poor relationship with longitude/elevation, its correlation was weak, while the average SPEI values in other seasons were significantly correlated with longitude/elevation (α = 0.001), and the absolute value of the correlation coefficient was between 0.6879–0.9453. Except for PC1 in annual and winter, PC1 and PC2 were significantly correlated with longitude/elevation (α = 0.001), and the absolute value of the correlation coefficient was between 0.5087–0.9501. The duration, severity, intensity, frequency of drought were significantly correlated with longitude/elevation (α = 0.001) in most situations. The average SPEI values and drought characteristics showed a good multivariate linear correlation with longitude, latitude, and elevation, indicating that drought exhibited strong zonal patterns. This study will provide new ideas for drought research and technical support for regional industrial layouts, planting structure adjustments, and drought and disaster reduction.

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Spatial and temporal drought projections of northwestern Turkey

Yeșilköy

Şaylan

2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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Spatio-temporal evaluation of various global circulation models in terms of projection of different meteorological drought indices

Cited by 9 publications

References 63 publications

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Zonal Patterns of Meteorological Drought on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, China

Spatial and temporal drought projections of northwestern Turkey

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