Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of “Non-Grain Production” in Hubei Province Based on a Non-Grain Index

Abstract

Non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land has become a common phenomenon due to the prosperity of the rural economy and the optimisation of the agricultural structure. However, the excessive use of cultivating land for NGP has threatened food production and the sustainable use of cultivated land. To halt this trend and to ensure food security, the authors of this paper applied a novel non-grain index to measure NGP, which could reflect multiple NGP activities; designated Hubei Province as its object of research; and revealed NGP’s spatio-temporal patterns of the past 30 years. We then assessed the characteristics of NGP based on spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Theil index, and geographically weighted regression. The results showed that the value of the non-grain index grew from 0.497 to 1.113 as NGP increased significantly in Hubei Province. The number of high-NGP counties increased, spatial agglomeration became obvious, and the eastern and western sides of Hubei Province witnessed an observable growth in NGP. As a result, the NGP in the eastern and western regions overtook production in the central region. Despite a series of historical subsidy policies and agricultural modernisation initiatives that promoted the planting of grain crops, the policy of “grain on valuable cultivated land” could be better implemented. We conclude by making some suggestions for reducing NGP and protecting cultivated land.

Spatial Characteristics of the Non-Grain Production Rate of Cropland and Its Driving Factors in Major Grain-Producing Area: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

“…By contrast, these two variables have negative coefficients only in the hilly regions. The factors that have a negative effect on the NGPR of cropland include total power of agricultural machinery per capita and the utilization degree of cropland factors, which are similar to the results of Hu et al [49]. The former indicates the high input and scale production of cropland and the later represents the environment status of grain production [66].…”

“…The utilization degree of cropland denotes the level of the cropland being developed [49]; thus, cropland productivity and cropland area per capita were selected to represent this factor. The high cropland productivity indicates that a farmer can obtain additional profit in this cropland parcel when they input the same economic and labor costs.…”

“…Existing studies have exerted a considerable amount of work to detect the NGPR of cropland in different regions and scales [12,14]. However, when detecting the NGPR of cropland, the existing literature usually considers the cropland as a whole and does not classify the cropland in detail [49]. In addition, most of the NGPR calculations in previous research were based on the statistical data or land use transfer data, which may lead to uncertainties [15,19] The level of the NGPR of cropland is closely correlated to global food security and the green development of society because it is one of the key parameters that can determine grain production [50].…”

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Non-Grain Cultivated Land in China’s Three Main Functional Grain Areas

“…Cultivated land is fundamental to food security and the most precious strategic resource in the world. With the continuous growth of the global population and rapid economic development, global food security faces various challenges, such as climate change, limited land resources, and water scarcity [1,2]. These factors have exacerbated the imbalance between demand for and supply of food, making food security a global issue [3][4][5][6][7].…”

“…Therefore, this study investigates differences in non-grain land use in different functional grain areas. The specific research purposes are (1) to explore the spatiotemporal patterns and the driving factors of non-grain cultivated land in order to provide a reference for the protection of cultivated land and food security; (2) to provide a new perspective for the study of non-grain cultivated land;…”