Spatio-Temporal evolution of Tourism Economic Resilience and Its Driving Factors under the Perspective of Sustainable Development-The Case of Yili River Valley

Abstract

The tourism economy plays an essential role in supporting and driving tourism development. Therefore, studying its resilience is crucial for promoting sustainable and high-quality tourism development. Based on the core essentials of economic toughness, this paper constructs the tourism economic toughness evaluation index system, uses the entropy weight TOPSIS method to measure the tourism economic toughness of 10 counties and cities in the Yili River Valley in 2010-2019, analyzes its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics through the standard deviation ellipse, the traditional Markov chain, and the spatial Markov chain, and uses the grey correlation analysis method to analyze the driving factors of the tourism economic toughness. The results show that: (1) the economic resilience of tourism in the Yili River Valley shows a "W"-shaped time-series dynamic development trend with an average index of 0.28394, in which it experienced a decline from 0.28 to 0.27 during 2012-2013 and 2015-2016; (2) Spatial Pattern: The Yili River Valley tourism economic resilience is characterized by a clear uneven spatial distribution. The city of Yining, representing the northwestern region, exhibits a high level of resilience, while the southwestern region, endowed with rich tourism resources, demonstrates a medium level of resilience. Conversely, the central to southeastern counties and cities, such as ChabuchaerXibo Autonomous County and other counties and cities, are characterized by a lack of developed tourism facilities, which has resulted in a lower level of resilience and a weak development situation; (3) In terms of spatial and temporal evolution, the standard deviation ellipse is stabilized year by year pointing to "northwest-southeast", the clustering tendency is gradually enhanced, and five tourism economic resilience convergence clubs are identified, whose internal transition probability is significantly affected by spatial location, and which show obvious stability and neighborhood effects; (4) Regarding the driving factors, the impact of each driving factor on the resilience of the tourism economy reaches the statistical significance threshold of 0.77 or above. Among them, the number of employees in the tertiary industry, especially the input of high-quality talents in the tourism industry, plays a key role in improving the quality of tourism services and strengthening the industry's ability to withstand risks and development potential.