Spatio-temporal larval abundance dynamics of a depleted Baltic Sea herring ecotype

Abstract

Fish stocks composed of several populations are considered to have more stable productivity than stocks containing only one or few populations. This stability is attributed to complementary or independent dynamics among the populations within the stock—the so-called portfolio effect. Declines of populations within stocks that have delayed recovery potentially increase risk to productivity and local extinctions. Portfolio effects may be relevant in the Baltic Sea, where autumn-spawning herring was the dominant herring ecotype until the early/mid-20th century. The current fishery assessment and management in the area assumes that the abundance of autumn spawning herring has been negligible since the 1970s; the share of spring spawning herring has become dominant and is considered to be the only ecotype. Data from a multi-annual ichthyoplankton survey in the southern Baltic Sea (Bornholm Basin) during autumn 2002–2019 show that abundance and spatial distribution of the smallest larval stages have increased significantly. This pattern could be due to an increase in autumn spawners in the area. Genetic studies confirm that these larval herring are offspring from true autumn spawners. Preserving intraspecific diversity is critical for a species’ future abilities to adapt to and survive in changing environmental conditions. Thus, our results not only provide new insights to the temporal dynamics of herring ecotypes and challenge the current understanding of central Baltic herring stock processes in general, but are also important in the context of monitoring, assessment, and spatial management of herring in the Baltic Sea.