Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England

Boulieri, Areti; Blangiardo, Marta

doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-036855

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 25 publications

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“…The inclusion of the space-time interaction term allowed each LTLA to have its own specific temporal trend, which is composed of the sum of the national temporal trend and the space-time interaction term. Similar to the approach adopted by Boulieri et al [ 42 ], we report the probability that the estimated incidence of child pedestrian crashes in an LTLA represents an increase compared to the national one.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A decade of child pedestrian safety in England: a bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

2023

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Background Child pedestrian injury is a public health and health equality challenge worldwide, including in high-income countries. However, child pedestrian safety is less-understood, especially over long time spans. The intent of this study is to understand factors affecting child pedestrian safety in England over the period 2011–2020. Methods We conducted an area-level study using a Bayesian space-time interaction model to understand the association between the number of road crashes involving child pedestrians in English Local Authorities and a host of socio-economic, transport-related and built-environment variables. We investigated spatio-temporal trends in child pedestrian safety in England over the study period and identified high-crash local authorities. Results We found that child pedestrian crash frequencies increase as child population, unemployment-related claimants, road density, and the number of schools increase. Nevertheless, as the number of licensed vehicles per capita and zonal-level walking/cycling increase, child pedestrian safety increases. Generally, child pedestrian safety has improved in England since 2011. However, the socio-economic inequality gap in child pedestrian safety has not narrowed down. In addition, we found that after adjusting for the effect of covariates, the rate of decline in crashes varies between local authorities. The presence of localised risk factors/mitigation measures contributes to variation in the spatio-temporal patterns of child pedestrian safety. Conclusions Overall, southern England has experienced more improvement in child pedestrian safety over the last decade than the northern regions. Our study revealed socio-economic inequality in child pedestrian safety in England. To better inform safety and public health policy, our findings support the importance of a targeted system approach, considering the identification of high-crash areas while keeping track of how child pedestrian safety evolves over time.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A decade of child pedestrian safety in England: a bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

2023

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Comparison of Bayesian Spatiotemporal Models for Small-Area Life Expectancy: A Simulation Study

Kang¹,

Khang²

2023

American Journal of Epidemiology

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The purpose of this study was to assess the precision, uncertainty, and normality of small-area life expectancy estimates calculated using Bayesian spatio-temporal models. We hypothesized six scenarios in which all 247 districts of Korea had the same year-specific female population of 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, 10,000, and 25,000 individuals during the study period (2013–2017). We generated 1,000 hypothetical datasets for each scenario and calculated district-year life expectancies. The precision and uncertainty of life expectancy estimates were compared between the two Bayesian spatio-temporal models and the traditional method and Bayesian spatial models. We examined the normality of the life expectancy distributions generated by each method and investigated an optimal cut-off value for the comparisons. The Bayesian spatio-temporal models produced precise life expectancy estimates. However, the 95% uncertainty interval contained the true value with a probability of less than 95%. The Bayesian spatio-temporal models violated the normality assumption in scenarios with small population sizes. Therefore, life expectancy comparisons should be conducted using a cut-off value that minimizes false-positive and false-negative rates. We proposed 0.8 as a cut-off value to determine the statistical significance of the difference in life expectancy.

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Assessment and Qualitative Comparative Analysis of English Local Authority Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategies to Improve Health under Austerity Conditions, 2013–2017

Tompson,

Egan,

McGill

et al. 2024

Health & Social Care in the Community

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Background. Local government is important for health equity because local policies often affect place‐based health, health equity, and their wider social determinants of health. In England, local governments must produce Joint Health and Wellbeing (JH&W) Strategies, outlining local strategies for health improvement. These strategies have been produced concurrently with budget cuts to local governments that are associated with adverse health and mortality outcomes. Using a novel approach, we assessed whether English local governments’ strategies for place‐based health and equity help explain why some disadvantaged areas have better mortality trends than others. Methods. We sampled “Joint Health and Wellbeing” (JH&W) Strategies for 20 disadvantaged localities covering the years 2013–2017. We sampled areas to include some with larger and some with smaller budget cuts. We developed a qualitative appraisal process for scoring the extent to which JH&W strategies focused on (i) place‐based social determinants of health and (ii) health equity. Using qualitative comparative analysis, we assessed whether mortality trends might be explained by JH&W scores or wider contextual factors such as budget cuts, population age, and disadvantage. Results. JH&W strategies on place‐based social determinants of health and equity were often underdeveloped. Only a minority of strategies were highly rated (i.e., scoring >2 out of 3) for addressing social inequalities of health (n = 6), and even fewer scored highly for place‐based social determinants of health (n = 3). Our qualitative comparative analysis found that external and contextual factors (e.g., budget cuts and disadvantages) offer more plausible explanations than JH&W strategies for place variations in life expectancy trends. Conclusion. Budget cuts and other contextual factors better explain mortality trends than JH&W strategies. This raises concerns about what such strategies can realistically achieve in the face of structural disadvantage and national policies that restrict local spending.

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Spatio-temporal model to estimate life expectancy and to detect unusual trends at the local authority level in England

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

A decade of child pedestrian safety in England: a bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

A decade of child pedestrian safety in England: a bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Comparison of Bayesian Spatiotemporal Models for Small-Area Life Expectancy: A Simulation Study

Assessment and Qualitative Comparative Analysis of English Local Authority Joint Health and Wellbeing Strategies to Improve Health under Austerity Conditions, 2013–2017

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