Spatio Temporal Modelling for Government Policy the COVID-19 Pandemic in East Java

Abstract

COVID-19 has cursorily spread globally. Just in four months, its status altered into a pandemic. In Indonesia, the virus epicenter is identified in Java. The first positive case was identified in West Java and later spread in all Java. The Large-scale Social Restrictions are seemingly inefficient as the SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains. As such, the government is struggling to find anticipatory policies and steps best to mitigate the transmission. In this particular article, we used a Spatio-temporal model method for the total COVID-19 cases in Java and forecasted the total cases for the next 14 days, allowing the stakeholders to make more effective policies. The data we were using were the daily data of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases taken from www.covid19.go.id. Data modelling was conducted using a generalized spatio-temporal autoregressive model. The model acquired to model the COVID-19 cases in Java was the GSTAR(1)(1,0,0) model.

Spatial Analysis to Identify Hotspots of Covid-19 Incidence in Jambi Municipality Indonesia

“…Many studies on the spatial aspects of the Covid-19 case have been carried out around the world (Ballesteros et al, 2021;Edriani et al, 2021;Hu et al, 2021;Lak et al, 2021;Mohammad Ebrahimi et al, 2021;Pang et al, 2021;Purwanto et al, 2021;Raymundo et al, 2021;Saavedra et al, 2021). Not much has been done to study the spatial aspects of the Indonesian Covid-19 case (Dhewantara et al, 2022;Heldayani et al, 2021;Iriany et al, 2021;Ratnasari & Dewi, 2021). Spatial distribution analysis using the Getis Ord G* method is a technique that is often and widely used, one of which is the detection of hotspots or disease clusters (ESRI, 2021;Hohl et al, 2020).…”