Spatio-temporal simulation of land cover scenarios in southwestern of China

Abstract

Numerous studies show that Karst area is more sensitive to influence of climate change and human activities, compared to the area in non鄄vulnerable condition. Therefore, quantitative simulating the land cover scenarios is important to understand the driving mechanism underlying land cover change in Karst area, and what policy should be carried out to prevent and reduce the land degradation. Especially, Karst area, as the typical ecological fragile zone, has been undertaking a series of ecological degradation, which have seriously affected the local socio鄄economic sustainable development. Karst area of Southwest China is one of the largest continuous Karst zone in the world, which major involves the Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Chongqing province of China. This paper aims to develop a method for simulating the scenarios of land cover in Karst area and analyze its spatial distribution change under the global climate change. A simulation method of land cover scenario was developed on the basis of analyzing the correlation of spatial distribution between HLZ (Holdridge life zone) and the land cover, and the policy of basic farmland protection. According to the climate scenarios data of RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85 released by CMIP5 (the Fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) and the land cover data in 2010 obtained from remoting sense images. Three land cover scenarios in Southwest China are respectively simulated in the next 90 years. The results show that three scenarios of land cover change have similar spatial landscape pattern and conversion trends. A gradual decrease was found in the following types of