Spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in Huaihe River Basin during 1960–2009

Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian; Zhang, Yongyong; Du, Haibo

doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0921-6

Cited by 58 publications

(35 citation statements)

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“…However, more and more studies found that the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD; see Pickands (1975)) could better simulate the Peak-overThreshold (POT) extreme series (Martins and Stedinger, 2001; Beguería, 2005;Xia et al, 2011;Bhunya et al, 2013;Naveau et al, 2014). Considering that the EEP events, in the current study, are defined by POT idea in term of quantiles, we employ GPD to fit the characteristics of EEP series.…”

Section: Extreme Value Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…wheren,â, andk are the estimates of n, a, and k, respectively, and can be estimated by the L-moment method (see the detail in the literature (Hosking, 1990;Hosking and Wallis, 1997;Xia et al, 2011)). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) method at the significance level of 0.05 is used as the goodness of fit test to check the efficiency of modelling.…”

Section: Extreme Value Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With respect to the frequency analysis for extreme characteristics, various distributions were used in modelling extreme hydroclimatological extreme series such as extreme value distributions (Moberg and Jones, 2005;Alexander et al, 2006;Xia et al, 2011), Extended Burr XII distribution (Shao et al, 2004) and Pearson III distributions (Griffis and Stedinger, 2007). As the EEP was determined by a threshold, the generalized Pareto distribution, as a peak-over-threshold distribution, was selected in analyzing the EPP characteristics in the case study of this paper.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many literatures have been documented to understand the changes in frequency, intensity of EP in many regions and basins of China (Yang et al, 2010;Xia et al, 2011;Zhang et al, 2012;Fu et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2013;Li et al, 2014), and the EP events were observed to be more frequent in the past several decades and were projected to increase in the frequency and intensity in most areas of China (Zhai et al, 2005;Zhang et al, 2006;Gemmer et al, 2011). However, previous studies mainly focused on the changes of precipitation on the monthly or annual scale in the area of our case study (Chen et al, 2007;Zhang et al, 2007;Ren et al, 2014), and little attention had been paid to the variations on the daily scale, especially for the EP.…”

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confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Investigating the variation and non-stationarity in precipitation extremes based on the concept of event-based extreme precipitation

She

Shao

Xia

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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a b s t r a c tExtreme precipitations (EP) could induce a series of social, environmental and ecological problems. Traditional EP analysis usually investigated the characteristics based on a fixed time scale and therefore ignored the continuity of EP occurrence. As a result, a comprehensive assessment on the influence and consequence of the EP occurring during consecutive time periods were largely eliminated. On the other hand, the characteristics of EP, including variables such as frequency, intensity and extreme volume, were commonly defined without sufficient consideration of the local tolerance capacity (which can be represented by a threshold level of EP) and therefore would sometimes be inappropriate. In this study, we proposed a concept of event-based extreme precipitation (EEP) by considering the continuity of EP and defined the statistical variables for the characteristics of an EEP event by taking account of local tolerance capacity. An EEP was identified as a collection of precipitation data over the consecutive time period in which all the precipitation amounts are above the pre-defined threshold, and EEP events are separated by at least one time step (e.g., day or hour) with precipitation amount below the threshold. As a case study which in fact motivated our proposal, we investigated the changes and variations of EEP with the consideration of potential non-stationarity in the Hanjiang River Basin of China (HJRB) during the time period of 1960-2013. Results showed that the concept of EEP, which could reflect the impact of continuity of EP occurrence and mirror the differences of local tolerance capacity, was more appropriate than the traditional method in the EP analysis.Crown

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Section: Extreme Value Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Extreme Value Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Investigating the variation and non-stationarity in precipitation extremes based on the concept of event-based extreme precipitation

She

Shao

Xia

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

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“…They found a positive trend in the precipitation concentration index at most stations, but none of trends was statistically significant (=0.10). Xia et al (2012) analyzed the spatio-temporal trend of extreme precipitation events in the Huai River basin based on the daily precipitation data of 27 stations from 1960 to 2009, and they detected an insignificant (=0.05) positive trend in annual maximum precipitation at most stations.…”

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Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of dry and wet conditions in the Huai River Basin using the standardized precipitation index

Yang

2015

Atmospheric Research

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Located in a transition zone between the northern and southern climates in China, the Huai River Basin is prone to extreme events such as drought and flood. Based on the daily precipitation data at 134 stations between 1961 and 2013, this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of the dry and wet conditions in the Huai River Basin through the statistical analysis of the rainfall stations' annual and seasonal standard precipitation index (SPI) series. Annual SPI series exhibited a decreasing trend at 86 stations and an increasing trend at the remaining stations. None of the increasing trend was significant, while the decreasing trend was significant at two stations at 5% significance level (=0.05) and one station at 10% level. Seasonal-wise, there has been a prevailing trend of drying in spring and autumn, and wetting in summer and winter.The trends in the spring and summer SPI series have been mostly insignificant, while those in autumn and winter significant (=0.10) at over 30 stations. The Pettitt test results indicated that the significant transitions (=0.10) in the autumn and winter SPI series mostly occurred in the middle to late 1980's. Comparison of the average number of dry and wet years between the two sub-periods of 1961-1984 and 1990-2013 suggested a significant increase (=0.05) in the average number of severely wet years across much of the basin. Overall, significant changes have already occurred in the dry and wet conditions of the Huai River Basin, which could have profound impacts on the food and water safety situation of the region.

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Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin, China

Xia

Zeng

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Process.

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The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Spatio-temporal trend and statistical distribution of extreme precipitation events in Huaihe River Basin during 1960–2009

Cited by 58 publications

References 15 publications

Investigating the variation and non-stationarity in precipitation extremes based on the concept of event-based extreme precipitation

Investigating the variation and non-stationarity in precipitation extremes based on the concept of event-based extreme precipitation

Analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of dry and wet conditions in the Huai River Basin using the standardized precipitation index

Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin, China

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