Spatio-temporal variability of drought characteristics across Pakistan

Lee, Jae Eun; Azam, Muhammad; Rehman, Saif Ur; Waseem, Muhammad; Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Afzal, Arslan; Cheema, Muhammad Jehanzeb Masud; Mehtab, Muhammad; Latif, Muhammad; Ahmed, Rafay; Umar, Muhammad; Sarwar, Abid; Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur

doi:10.1007/s10333-021-00881-4

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Extreme drought events were found in the year of 1982 and 2000, while severe droughts were mostly found in 1982,[1983][1984][1985][1990][1991], and 2000 for the 12-month time scale; moreover, moderate drought events were also found and classified into the groups of 1982-1983, 1985-1989, 1990-1991, 1997-1998, 2000-2002, and 2004. Some of the drought events found in this study are in line with previous studies [43,71,[74][75][76]. Jamro et al (2019) [71] also revealed three drought periods (i.e., 1946-1953, 1984-1989, and 1998-2002) in GB.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan

Moazzam

Rahman

Munawar

et al. 2022

Water

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This study focused on the trends of rainfall variability and drought monitoring in the northern region of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan). Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) model data were used for the period of 1981 to 2020. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to assess the dry and wet conditions during the study period. The Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) trend tests were applied to calculate the trend of drought. A coupled model intercomparison project–global circulation model (CMIP5–GCMs) was used to project the future precipitation in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) for the 21st century using a multimodel ensemble (MME) technique for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. From the results, the extreme drought situations were observed in the 12-month SPI series in 1982 in the Diamir, Ghizer, and Gilgit districts, while severe drought in 1982–1983 was observed in Astore, Ghizer, Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, and Skardu. Similarly, in 2000–2001 severe drought prevailed in Diamir, Ghanche, and Skardu. The results of MK and SR indicate a significant increasing trend of rainfall in the study area, which is showing the conversion of snowfall to rainfall due to climate warming. The future precipitation projections depicted an increase of 4% for the 21st century as compared with the baseline period in the GB region. The results of the midcentury projections depicted an increase in precipitation of about 13%, while future projections for the latter half of the century recorded a decrease in precipitation (about 9%) for both RCPs, which can cause flooding in midcentury and drought in the latter half of the century. The study area is the host of the major glaciers in Pakistan from where the Indus River receives its major tributaries. The area and volume of these glaciers are decreasing due to warming impacts of climate change. Therefore, this study is useful for proper water resource management to cope up with water scarcity in the future.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan

Moazzam

Rahman

Munawar

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Balochistan (southwest Pakistan) is the center of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This region has an arid climate, and the annual precipitation ranges from 200 mm to 350 mm [13]. This region has suffered severe droughts in the past.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This region has suffered severe droughts in the past. In addition, it is projected that Balochistan will experience more droughts than other parts of Pakistan [13]. The effects of climate change are already evident in increased droughts, especially after 1960 [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effects of climate change are already evident in increased droughts, especially after 1960 [14]. Many researchers have analyzed drought trends over this region using standardized precipitation index (SPI) [3,13,15,16] and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) [17] using reanalysis data. Regional drought monitoring based on the Drought severity index incorporated with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was carried out over Pakistan [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drought Projections in Balochistan Using CORDEX-SA Data

Irshad,

Dars,

Ansari

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Water resources planners and policymakers often ask questions about the future projections of drought characteristics (events, intensity, severity, duration, and peak) under different climatic scenarios. This study focused on quantifying the historical (1951-2005) and future (2026-2100) drought characteristics using the Standardized precipitation index (SPI) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios for the Balochistan province of Pakistan, an arid and drought-vulnerable region. Precipitation data of MPI-ESM-LR_RCA4 RCM was obtained from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment South Asia (CORDEX-SA). The CORDEX-SA data was interpolated at 12-gauge stations and bias-corrected by the distribution mapping method using Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) data. The drought characteristics were calculated based on standardized precipitation index (SPI), and intercompared between northern Balochistan (NB) and southern Balochistan (SB). It was found that the northern Balochistan (NB) region has suffered more droughts in the historical period and is also projected to have more severe and intense droughts than SB region. It was also found that with the increase of drought events, the duration reduces, which means that the higher the drought events at a station, the lower the drought duration. Government officials should focus more on managing the already few freshwater resources sustainably, given the increased likelihood of droughts in Balochistan due to climate change.

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“…Furthermore, it exhibits substantial spatial and temporal variability in various climates and regions. Several authors have proposed various procedures and frameworks to address the spatial and temporal variability of drought events [15][16][17][18][19][20]. However, it is considered a highly variable complicated phenomenon, and it is challenging to discover its onset and termination periods [21][22][23][24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

et al. 2022

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Drought is a creeping phenomenon that slowly holds an area over time and can be continued for many years. The impacts of drought occurrences can affect communities and environments worldwide in several ways. Thus, assessment and monitoring of drought occurrences in a region are crucial for reducing its vulnerability to the negative impacts of drought. Therefore, comprehensive drought assessment techniques and methods are required to develop adaptive strategies that a region can undertake to reduce its vulnerability to drought substantially. For this purpose, this study proposes a new method known as a regional comprehensive assessment of meteorological drought (RCAMD). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Precipitation and Temperature Index (SPTI) are jointly used for the development of the RCAMD. Further, the RCAMD employs Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) and steady-state probabilities (SSPs) to comprehensively collect information from various stations and drought indices. Moreover, the RCAMD is validated on the six selected stations in the northern areas of Pakistan. The outcomes associated with the RCAMD provide a comprehensive regional assessment of meteorological drought and become the initial source for bringing more considerations to drought monitoring and early warning systems.

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Spatio-temporal variability of drought characteristics across Pakistan

Cited by 5 publications

References 49 publications

Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan

Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan

Drought Projections in Balochistan Using CORDEX-SA Data

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

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