Spatio-temporal variability of Northern Hemipheric Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and precipitation over the mid-to-low reaches of the Yangtze River

Han, Xue; Wei, Fengying; Tourre, Yves M.; Dong, Wenjie

doi:10.1007/s00376-008-0458-x

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Although the prediction model can reflect the future climate scenarios to some extent, its validity and reliability still need to be verified. Similarily, some studies have used the Northern Pacific Oscillation (NPO) index to reflect climate anomalies in different regions (Han et al 2008), which plays an important role in modulating atmospheric circulation and climate over East Asia. Li and He (2016) analyzed the correlation between the North Pacific Oscillation index and summer precipitation anomalies in China and demonstrated that the precipitation over North China increased when the NPO index were negative.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Real Options‐Based Decision‐Making Model for Infrastructure Investment to Prevent Rainstorm Disasters

Wang

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2019

Production and Operations Management

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Extreme precipitation caused by global climate change is expected to have a severe impact on urbanized areas. While decision‐makers struggle with climate uncertainty, an effective infrastructure adaptation strategy attaches great importance to preventing disasters resulting from rainfall. We propose a decision‐making model to incorporate the probability of rainfall disasters and recommend investing time when evaluating projects related to climate adaptation. We use a hydrological statistical model and economic and technical factors to estimate the expected economic losses in several rainfall disaster scenarios, and the value of the adaptation infrastructures is calculated using a real options pricing approach. Then the decision‐making model is applied to a case study involving a campus rainfall disaster prevention facility at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, China. We established three submerged scenarios with different rainfall intensities, then we evaluated the premium of holding an option to defer and pointed out the optimal investing time in each scenario. This model is expected to provide guidance for the development of adaptation infrastructure for relatively small areas such as communities and universities. And we proved that using real options‐based approach could provide more managerial flexibility for investors.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%