Spatio-Temporal Variability of the Impact of Population Mobility on Local Business Sales in Response to COVID-19 in Seoul, Korea

Abstract

Social distancing is an effective method for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic by decreasing population mobility, but it has also negatively affected local business sales. This paper explores the spatio-temporal impact of population mobility on local business sales in response to COVID-19 in Seoul, South Korea. First, this study examined the temporal variability by analyzing statistical interaction terms in linear regression models. Second, the spatio-temporal variability was captured using Moran eigenvector spatial filtering (MESF)-based spatially varying coefficients (SVC) models with additional statistical interaction terms. Population mobility and local business sales were estimated from public transportation ridership and restaurant sales, respectively, which were both obtained from spatial big datasets. The analysis results show the existence of various relationships between changes in the population mobility and local business sales according to the corresponding period and region. This study confirms the usability of spatial big datasets and spatio-temporal varying coefficients models for COVID-19 studies and provides support for policy-makers in response to infectious disease.

Exploring the spatio-temporal clusters of closed restaurants after the COVID-19 outbreak in Seoul using relative risk surfaces

“…Finally, although permanent business closure is generally considered the most negative impact of the pandemic on local businesses, it does not occur immediately in response to the pandemic. Therefore, excluding temporary closings 41 and examining business sales 3 could be useful in further investigating the impacts of the pandemic.…”

“…This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on local businesses with a focus on the restaurant industry. This industry was selected for the following analysis due to its significant contribution to the overall economy in Seoul and the negative impacts that it has experienced from the pandemic 3 . Specifically, according to the 2020 business survey conducted by Statistics Korea, the restaurant and lodging sector comprise the second highest proportion of the industries, accounting for about 16% of the total number of businesses.…”