Spatiotemporal analysis of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan, 1955 - 2013

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) poses a significant obstacle to international trade and economic development, and for that reason, FMD prevention, control and eradication are major goals guiding animal health policy in most countries. The purpose of this study was to conduct a retrospective spatiotemporal analysis of FMD outbreaks among livestock in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) from 1955 to 2013. During that time, several FMD control strategies were implemented in RK, which culminated with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) recognition of RK as a country that is FMD-free with partial vaccination (2015). Here, we describe and analyse the changes in spatial and temporal dynamics of FMD under different control strategies that were utilized as the country progressively moved towards eradication of the disease. A total number of 5,260 FMD outbreaks of serotype O and A (including the A lineage) were recorded in the cattle, pig and small ruminant populations of RK during that period. We found that outbreaks occurred in spatiotemporal clusters only prior to 1970, which is before ring vaccination around outbreaks was first employed. This finding suggests that ring vaccination substantially reduced local spread and prevented large FMD epidemics in the country. Disease incidence steadily decreased after the implementation of ring vaccination and culling of infected animals, with spatiotemporal clusters only occurring as a result of an introduction of an antigenically distinct variant of serotype A. From 1955 to 1984, FMD outbreaks demonstrated two seasonal peaks of incidence in the spring and fall. In contrast, only the peak in spring was observed between 1984 and 2013. Quantitative knowledge on how different policy and alternative control strategies contributed to RK achieving FMD-free status could improve prospects for continued control in RK and inform control strategies in other FMD-endemic regions.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Spread of ASF in the Russian Federation in 2017-2019

“…To estimate the speed of propagation in spatio-temporal clusters, we analyzed the spatio-temporal density of outbreaks (STDO), which denotes the number of new outbreaks in a certain territory over a fi xed period of time. The calculation was carried out according to the formula: STDOn = (Nnobs / Sn / Tn) * 1000, where Nnobs is the observed number of outbreaks in the nth cluster, Sn is the cluster area in km 2 , and Tn is the cluster duration, in days [18].…”

Using cross-species vaccination approaches to counter emerging infectious diseases

“…In such a scenario, Rift Valley fever vaccination could be implemented among susceptible animals (licensed vaccines are already available) and humans (when a vaccine is available) within a radius in proximity to the initial cases. Such a ‘ring vaccination’ approach has its roots in the control of disease outbreaks in livestock 75 and has been used successfully to control Ebola virus disease epidemics 76 .…”

Spatiotemporal analyses of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in cattle farms in Chiang Mai and Lamphun, Thailand

“…SaTScan is the most commonly used form of detection in the cluster technique and has been applied widely within the public health sector and in veterinary sciences [16,[24][25][26][27]. Up to now, the implementation of the space-time cluster detection method has been published widely in public health literature, but, utilization of the space-time scan statistics in epidemiology research on FMD has been limited to only a few studies in Iran [28], Mongolia [29], Israel and Palestine [14], and Kazakhstan [30]. FMD cluster identification can highlight changing patterns in risk areas and help to identify new risk areas that can then lead to effective control action plans during the outbreak period, as well as to optimize the preventive measures needed to decrease the degree of disease incursion within the outbreak areas [14].…”