Spatiotemporal analysis of Holiday Climate Index for urban and beach destinations in Greece.

Abstract

The relationship between climate change and tourism is multifaceted, with each influencing the other in various ways. This dynamic poses both challenges and opportunities for the tourism industry. The Mediterranean basin is often referred to as a hotspot for climate change, and Greece, as one of the top Mediterranean summer destinations, faces significant challenges. In this study, the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) was calculated, to assess the climate suitability of urban (HCI urban) and beach (HCI beach) destinations for tourism activities in Greece during the summer. The spatial and temporal trends were examined for the period 1981 to 2024 over Greece. Moreover, the future performance of HCI was examined for all Greek destinations, based on three climate scenarios, namely SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, during the period 2025–2099. Between 1981 and 2024, the most notable decreases in HCI observed during June, mainly for beach destination at Ionian islands, South Aegean and at coastal areas south of Thessaloniki. Also, significant decreases occurred for urban destinations in West Macedonia, Epirus, and west Thessaly during July and August for the same period. Regarding the future projection, it was detected that under all climate scenarios, the HCI is expected to decline in the future. Consequently, this methodology might be useful for tourism climate adaptation and heat mitigation policies.