Spatiotemporal Analysis of Old World Diseases in North America, A.D. 1519–1807

Abstract

Over the last 25 years, a significant amount of archaeological and ethnohistoric research has produced data on Native American population trends after European contact. These include the timing and severity of depopulation and specific Old World diseases, allowing for meta-analytical research on a variety of topics. These data have been used in studies to explore the severity of depopulation, but the spatial and temporal patterns of diseases have been studied less. This research employs spatial analysis methods—Mantel tests and kriging—to study the relationship between the location and timing of Old World disease events on continental and regional scales, with the goal of examining how diseases spread over time and space. The results show that the timing of disease-related depopulation closely correlated with location, indicating that disease events clustered with regard to time and space. This strongly suggests that individual disease events impacted local populations and did not spread long distances (> 300 km) until the late seventeenth century. The analysis also reveals variations in the speed with which diseases spread. Interpreting the results with respect to pathogen, host, and environmental factors suggests that population distributions and landscape may have played significant roles in where and how fast diseases spread.

Do historic log buildings provide evidence of reforestation following depopulation of Indigenous Peoples?

“…Though we collected samples at the basal end of logs whenever possible, we cannot account for the height at which logs were felled. Yet, the pattern of recruitment that we observe is consistent with the timing of depopulation in the region (c. 1600s; Jones, ; Wall & Lapham, ), especially given the time required for forest establishment following land abandonment, estimated at ~15–20 years in eastern North America (Harrison & Werner, ; Myster, ; Oliver, ).…”

“…Yet, the pattern of recruitment that we observe is consistent with the timing of depopulation in the region (c. 1600s; Jones, 2014;Wall & Lapham, 2003), especially given the time required for forest establishment following land abandonment, estimated at ~15-20 years in eastern North America (Harrison & Werner, 1984;Myster, 1993;Oliver, 1981).…”

“…The idea that the depopulation of Indigenous Peoples in the Americas beginning in 1492 led to widespread reforestation, carbon drawdown and global‐scale cooling (Dull et al, ; Koch et al, ) hinges on three assumptions: (a) the timing of depopulation in the 1500s was coincident with CO 2 drawdown, (b) Indigenous Peoples' land use was intensive enough to result in cleared (or thinned) and subsequently reforested areas and (c) the spatial extent of their impact was sufficient to affect global CO 2 levels. While European diseases undoubtedly affected Indigenous Peoples, there is spatiotemporal complexity in the spread of disease, dictated by population sizes, interaction and physical geography (Jones, ; Ramenofsky, Wilbur, & Stone, ), which suggests depopulation of Indigenous Peoples in North America following European contact likely occurred between 1518 and 1789 CE (Jones, ). Estimates of the timing of depopulation within our study area range from 1600 to 1677 CE (Jones, ), overlapping with the timing of modelled depopulation, reforestation and carbon drawdown (~1570–1650 CE).…”

“…While European diseases undoubtedly affected Indigenous Peoples, there is spatiotemporal complexity in the spread of disease, dictated by population sizes, interaction and physical geography (Jones, ; Ramenofsky, Wilbur, & Stone, ), which suggests depopulation of Indigenous Peoples in North America following European contact likely occurred between 1518 and 1789 CE (Jones, ). Estimates of the timing of depopulation within our study area range from 1600 to 1677 CE (Jones, ), overlapping with the timing of modelled depopulation, reforestation and carbon drawdown (~1570–1650 CE).…”

The Osteological Paradox 20 Years Later: Past Perspectives, Future Directions

“…Several researchers have proposed methods that address the probable violation of the stationarity assumption in past populations, such as using models that allow for the estimation of population growth rates or using proxies for birth rates based on the proportions of subadults in skeletal samples Buikstra et al 1986;Kohler and Reese 2014;White 2014;Wood et al 2002). Archaeological research is also addressing migration and population growth (or decline) through isotope analysis (e.g., Beaumont et al 2013;Keenleyside et al 2011;Knudson et al 2012), ancient DNA studies (e.g., Li et al 2011;O'Fallon and Fehren-Schmitz 2011;Raff et al 2011), biodistance analysis (e.g., McIlvaine et al 2014;Torres-Rouff et al 2013), and GIS-based analyses of settlement patterns and trends in population size (Jones 2010(Jones , 2014. Although demographic nonstationarity remains an important issue for bioarchaeologists, our primary focus here, following Wood et al (1992), is on heterogeneous frailty and selective mortality, both of which affect ancient health research more directly.…”