Spatiotemporal changes of early fall and late spring frost and its trend based an daily minimum temperature in Iran

Hosseini, Sayyed Mohammad; Karbalaee, Alireza; Hosseini, Seyed Asaad

doi:10.1007/s12517-021-06608-3

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…This number reaches more than 40 percent in some sensitive garden products, especially almonds, pistachios and apricots (Zolfaghari et al, 2012). In general, late spring frost in some years has cost millions of dollars to farmers, their crops and horticultural products of West Azerbaijan province (Hosseini et al, 2021). Late spring frost is considered as one of the main and effective factors in the production of horticultural and agricultural products in Urmia (Hesari et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost

2024

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Despite the adverse effects of late spring frost on the ecological and economic impact on agriculture, the management of these events are poorly investigated. Therefore, the grounded theory was used for extracting the livelihood stabilization model of orchardists on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frosts. The statistical population of this study in the qualitative part included 22 experts in the field of horticulture. In the quantitative study, they included all orchardists in the villages along with Lake Urmia, comprising 341 people, of which 236 were randomly selected. By carefully examining and linking the concepts and subcategories, the most important subcategories that were included six subcategories. The results of all calculated goodness-of-fit indexes (chi-square [P > 0.01], RMSEA = 0.000, NFI = 0.95, CFI = 0.91, and GFI = 0.92) showed the model provided an excellent fit for the data. Standardized regression coefficients showed that interfering factors had the greatest impact on the livelihood of orchardists against late spring frosts (β = 0.47). Also, the background factors (β = 0.43) and causal factors (β = 0.39) were found to affect the livelihood of the orchardists in encountering late spring frost. The results of multiple square correlations of dependent variables also indicated that about 41% of the livelihood variance of small-scale orchardists was explained by the predictor variables (i.e. causal conditions, background factors and interfering factors). The findings of this study can assist policymakers, planners and relevant managers while paying more attention to orchardists in the region, so as to support decisions in order to achieve sustainable development.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost

2024

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“…Particular topographic conditions can cause large temperature differences and therefore different frostrisks [39,40]. Therefore, it is necessary to create models that incorporate spatial information to extend the knowledge of minimum temperatures and the risk of frost [41][42][43][44]. In recent decades, geospatial techniques have gained considerable interest among the scientific community in the studying of Earth and hydrological sciences to solve and understand various problems and develop complex approaches in natural resource management [45].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)

et al. 2021

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Climate change is having many effects in the agricultural sector, which are being studied worldwide. Undoubtedly, warmer winters and earlier springs produce changes in frost regimes and severity that will affect the sustainability of agricultural production in the area. The Mediterranean region and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are among the areas where the greatest impact of climate change is expected. Daily data from 68 weather stations of the IP belonging to the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (1975–2018) were used to conduct a spatiotemporal study of the frost regime. The variables calculated include the probability of three frost types according to their severity, frost day, mean absolute minimum yearly temperature, first frost day, last frost day, and frost-free period. These variables were integrated into a geographic information system, which allowed the graphical visualization of their patterns using of geostatistical interpolation techniques (kriging). Changes in frost variables were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A general reduction in the number of frosts per year is observed (values between −0.04- and −0.8-day frosts per year), as well as an increase in the mean absolute minimum temperature (values between 0.04 and 0.10 °C per year), with very high significant trends throughout the territory. The reduction in the number of frosts is more pronounced at a higher elevation. Frost dates vary greatly due to the orographic characteristics of the IP. The generalized trend is of a significant delay of the autumn frosts (values between 0.4 and 1.06 days/year), as well as early spring frosts (between −0.429 and −1.29 days/year), and as a consequence a longer frost-free period, all changes were much stronger than those found in other regions of the world. These effects of climate change must be mitigated by modifying species, varieties, and cultivation techniques to guarantee sustainable agriculture.

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Projection of changes in late spring frost based on CMIP6 models and SSP scenarios over cold regions of Iran

Helali

Oskouei²,

Hosseini³

et al. 2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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Spatiotemporal changes of early fall and late spring frost and its trend based an daily minimum temperature in Iran

Cited by 5 publications

References 28 publications

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost

Modeling stabilizing the of orchard managers on the shores of Lake Urmia against late spring frost

Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)

Projection of changes in late spring frost based on CMIP6 models and SSP scenarios over cold regions of Iran

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