Spatiotemporal characteristics analysis and potential distribution prediction of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in China from 2007–2018

Niu, Bing; Liang, Ruirui; Zhang, Shuwen; Sun, Xiaodong; Li, Fuchen; Qiu, Songyin; Zhang, Hui; Bao, Songhao; Zhong, Junjie; Li, Xinxiang; Chen, Qin

doi:10.1111/tbed.14426

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…SaTScan was chosen for simultaneous detection of space-time clusters (n =5) in all studies, whereas temporal and spatial autocorrelations were investigated (11). Spatiotemporal directionality tests to detect the direction of the progression of PPR epidemics were used in three studies (11,39,40). Figure 6: Distribution of models, at regional and subregional, containing variables from every category in the conceptual framework…”

Section: Methods Used To Identify Spatial and Temporal Variations Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…11 studies used epidemiological factors to model or project PPR counts (19%, n = 8) (11,16,39,45,51,53,(56)(57)(58)61). Six studies focused only on predicting PPR epidemics using epidemiological factors as covariates to forecast the PPRV suitability area and estimate the spatial risk (number of outbreaks in PPR passive surveillance data (40,(43)(44)(45)58,62). Transmission dynamics were also evaluated using metapopulation model (53).…”

Section: Modelling Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(60). Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche (MaxEnt) modelling was employed to detect suitable areas for PPR virus distribution (40,43). GIS-based multi-criterion decision analysis was used to identify areas at risk of PPR occurrence and spread (62).…”

Section: Modelling Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Mwanandota,

Hakizimana,

Machuka

et al. 2024

Preprint

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BackgroundSustained Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) circulation, as evidenced by surveillance, shows PPR endemicity in Africa and Asia. Regional transmission of PPR is enabled by joining numerous epidemiological factors. Spatial, spatiotemporal and transmission dynamics analytical methods have been used to explore the risk of PPR transmission. The dearth of information on the risk factors associated with spatiotemporal distribution and transmission dynamics of PPR at a regional scale is high. Through a thorough analysis of peer-reviewed literature, this study sought to evaluate the risks of Peste des Petit ruminant virus (PPRV) epidemics by noting distinctions of geographical and spatial-temporal approaches applied in endemic settings.MethodsA scoping literature review of PPR research publications that used spatial and spatiotemporal approaches to assess PPR risks in endemic areas was carried out using PubMed and Google Scholar data base.ResultsOut of 42 papers selected 19 focused on Asia, 15 on Africa, and 8 had a global view. 61.9% used clustering analysis while 35.7% used spatial autocorrelation. Temporal trends were described by most studies at about 71.2% while modeling approaches were used by 13 articles (30%). Five risk factors evaluated include demographics and livestock–wildlife interactions (n = 20), spatial accessibility (n = 19), trade and commerce (n = 17), environment and ecology (n = 12), and socioeconomic aspects (n=9). Transmission dynamics of PPR was covered in almost all articles except 2 articles but it has linked all the risk factors.ConclusionsThe review has contributed to the shifting and improvement of our understanding on PPR outbreaks in endemic settings and support evidence-based decision-making to mitigate the impact of the virus on small ruminant populations. Linkage of other risk factors to livestock trade which is the major driver of livestock movement has been shown to pose a significant risk of PPR epidemics in endemic settings. With many studies being found in Asia compared to Africa, future development of predictive models to evaluate possible eradication strategies at national and regional levels should also consider Africa.

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Section: Methods Used To Identify Spatial and Temporal Variations Of ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelling Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Mwanandota,

Hakizimana,

Machuka

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…Te analysis of PPR epidemic situation and trends in the disease spread in recent years in neighboring countries indicates a considerable threat of PPR introduction in Kazakhstan. Epidemic situation in Mongolia and China, as well as in Georgia, Turkey, and Iran, is of particular importance [8][9][10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Kazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model

Yessenbayev

Mukhanbetkaliyev

Yessembekova

et al. 2023

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

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In this study, we simulated the potential spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) between small ruminant (SR) farms in the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK) in case of the disease’s introduction into the country. The simulation was based on actual data on the location and population of SR farms in the RK using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). The NAADSM employs the stochastic simulations of the between-farm disease spread predicated on the SIR compartmental epidemic model. The most important epidemiological indicators of PPR, demography of SR farms, and livestock management characteristics in the RK were used for model parameterization. This article considers several scenarios for the initial introduction of PPR into the territory of Kazakhstan, based on previously identified high-risk regions and varying sizes of initially infected farms. It is demonstrated that the duration and size of the outbreak do not depend on the size of initially infected farms but rather depend on the livestock concentration and number of farms in the affected area. This implies that the outbreak may affect the largest number of farms in the case of introduction of the disease into farms in southern Kazakhstan. However, even in the most unfavorable scenario, the total number of affected farms does not exceed 2.4% of all SR farms in the RK. The size of the affected area is, in most cases, no larger than an averaged 2-level administrative division’s size, which suggests the scale of a local epidemic. The chosen model provides ample opportunity to study the impact of different control and prevention measures on the spread of PPR as well as to assess the potential economic damage.

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“…Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and goat pox (GP) are major diseases that endanger goats, sheep and other small ruminants, which belong to Category A virulent infectious diseases issued by OIE. PPR, FMD, and GP are prevalent worldwide and causing certain harm to global sheep industry [1][2][3][4][5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Recombinant Capripoxvirus Expressing the F Protein of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus and the P12A3C of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus

Wang

Guo

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Background: Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and goat pox (GP) are three important infectious diseases that infect goats, sheep and other small ruminants. It is well-known that the prevention of three diseases rely mainly on their individual vaccines. However, the vaccines have a variety of different disadvantages, such as short duration of immunity, increasing the number of vaccinations, and poor thermal stability. The purpose of this study is to construct a recombinant goat pox virus (rGPV) capable of expressing the F gene of PPRV and the P12A3C gene of FMDV as a live vector vaccine.Results: The IRES, FMDV P12A3C and PPRV F genes into the multi-cloning site of the universal transfer plasmid pTKfpgigp to construct a recombinant transfer plasmid pTKfpgigpFiP12A3C, and transfected GPV-infected lamb testis (LT) cells with liposomes and produced by homologous recombination Recombinant GPV (rGPV/PPRVF-FMDVP12A3C, rGPV). The rGPV was screened and purified by green florescence protein (GFP) and xanthine-guanine-phosphoribosyltransferase gene (gpt) of Escherichia coli as selective markers, and the expression of rGPV in LT cells was detected by RT-PCR and immunofluorescence techniques. The results showed that the virus strain rGPV/PPRVF-FMDVP12A3C containing FMDV P12A3C and PPRV F genes was obtained. The exogenous genes FMDV P12A3C and PPRV F contained in rGPV were normally transcribed and translated in LT cells, and the expression products could specifically react with PPRV and FMDV antiserum. Then, the rGPV was intradermally inoculated with goats, the animal experiments showed that rGPV/PPRVF-FMDVP12A3C could induce high levels of specific antibodies against GPV, PPRV and FMDV. Conclusions: The constructed rGPV induced high levels of specific antibodies against GPV, PPRV and FMDV. The study provides a reference for " one vaccine with multiple uses " of GPV live vector vaccine.

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Spatiotemporal characteristics analysis and potential distribution prediction of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in China from 2007–2018

Cited by 13 publications

References 90 publications

Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Simulating the Spread of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Kazakhstan Using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model

A Recombinant Capripoxvirus Expressing the F Protein of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus and the P12A3C of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus

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