Spatiotemporal Characterization of Dengue Incidence and Its Correlation to Climate Parameters in Indonesia

Abstract

Dengue has become a public health concern in Indonesia since it was first found in 1968. This study aims to determine dengue hotspot areas and analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of dengue and its association with dominant climate parameters nationally. Monthly data for dengue and climate observations (i.e., rainfall, relative humidity, average, maximum, and minimum temperature) at the regency/city level were utilized. Dengue hotspot areas were determined through K-means clustering, while Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) determined dominant climate parameters and their spatiotemporal distribution. Results revealed four clusters: Cluster 1 comprised cities with medium to high Incidence Rates (IR) and high Case Densities (CD) in a narrow area. Cluster 2 has a high IR and low CD, and clusters 3 and 4 featured medium and low IR and CD, respectively. SVD analysis indicated that relative humidity and rainfall were the most influential parameters on IR across all clusters. Temporal fluctuations in the first mode of IR and climate parameters were clearly delineated. The spatial distribution of heterogeneous correlation between the first mode of rainfall and relative humidity to IR exhibited higher values, which were predominantly observed in Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, the eastern part of Sumatra, the southern part of Kalimantan, and several locations in Sulawesi.