Spatiotemporal differences and uncertainties in projections of precipitation and temperature in South Korea from CMIP6 and CMIP5 general circulation models

Abstract

This study compared the historical simulations and future projections of precipitation and temperature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)5 and CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to quantify the differences in the projections due to differences in scenarios. Five performance indicators were used to quantify the model reproducibility of the observed precipitation levels at 22 stations for the historical period of 1970–2005. The percentages of change in precipitation and temperature were estimated for the near (2025–2060) and far future (2065–2100) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios of CMIP5 and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2–4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios of CMIP6. The uncertainty in the projection in each case was calculated using the reliability ensemble average (REA) method. As a result, the CMIP6 GCMs showed an improvement compared with the CMIP5 GCMs with regard to the ability to simulate the historical climate. The uncertainty in the precipitation projections was higher for SSPs than that in RCPs. With regard to the temperature, the uncertainty was higher for RCPs than for SSPs. The ensemble means of the precipitation and temperature showed higher changes in the far future compared with the near future for both RCPs and SSPs. This study contributes to improvement in the confidence of future projections using CMIP6 GCMs and bolsters our understanding of the relative uncertainty in SSPs and RCPs.

Differences in multi‐model ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections for future droughts in South Korea

“…Afterwards, correction factors were applied to correct the bias in the projected data (2020–2100) at each station. The QM method has been concluded as effective for bias corrections of GCM simulations in South Korea (Song et al, 2020; Song et al, 2021b).…”

Deep‐learning based projection of change in irrigation water‐use under RCP 8.5

“…Recently, a new phase model, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 based on the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) reflecting socioeconomic factors have been released. Song, Chung and Shahid (2021) compared the uncertainty of future temperature based on both SSPs and RCPs scenarios, and the results showed that the uncertainty in Korea was lower for SSPs than for RCPs. Therefore, to project the future WUR and WA using new scenarios for SSP, the DBN based model proposed in this study can be applied in the future.…”

Inter‐comparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt

“…Zhu and Yang (2020) showed lower performance of CMIP6 MME in the wet region of the Tibetan Plateau. Song et al (2021a) showed higher uncertainty in projections for SSPs compared to RCPs. Srivastava et al (2020) showed similar bias in both CMIPs in reproducing climatology over the United States.…”

“…(2021) reported better capacity of CMIP6 GCMs in reproducing Southern Hemisphere westerlies. However, the lower or similar performance of CMIP6 GCMs compared to CMIP5 GCMs has also been reported in several studies (Srivastava et al ., 2020; Zhu and Yang, 2020; Song et al ., 2021a). Zhu and Yang (2020) showed lower performance of CMIP6 MME in the wet region of the Tibetan Plateau.…”