Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Frost Key Date in Harbin Municipality in Recent 62a

Abstract

In this study, based on frost formation data provided by Harbin Meteorological Bureau, combined with geographical factors, temperature and population density, linear fitting, Mann-Kendall mutation test, pettitt method and sliding T test were used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of frost date in Harbin Municipality and the effects of geographical factors, temperature and population density on frost regularity. The results showed that (1) The earliest year of FSD appeared was 1966 and 1967, on the 255th, i.e., August 18th, and the latest was 283 days, i.e., October 10th, 2006. The earliest year in which the FED appeared was April 24th of 2015, the 114th day of that year, and the latest was April 21st of 1974, the 141st day of that year. The year with the most frost was 2012, with 161 days, and the year with the shortest was 1966, with 123 days. (2) Throughout the study period, FSD increased by 7.8 days at a rate of -1.27d/10a, FED increased by 10.9 days at a rate of 1.77d/10a, and FFS increased by 18.9 days at a rate of 3.05d/10a. The tendency rate of FSD and FFS at each site in Harbin showed an increasing trend. For FED, the tendency rate of some sites showed an increasing trend. In general, FSD showed a delayed trend, FED showed an advanced trend, and FFS showed a prolonged trend. Using the method of unary linear regression, FSD of each site showed an increasing trend, FFS showed an increasing trend, and FED showed a decreasing trend in general. (3) Throughout the study period, FSD was mutated in 2000, and the arrival time of it in the study area averaged the 265th, i.e., September 22nd, and after that, the arrival time of it changed to the 272nd, i.e., September 29th of that year. FED was mutated in 2006, and the arrival time of it in the study area averaged 128th, i.e., April 8th. After the mutation, the arrival time of FED changed to 121st, i.e., April 1st of that year. FFS was mutated in 2004. Before the mutation, with an average arrival time of 137days in the study area .But after that, the time changed to 150 days.(4) FSD and FFS in Harbin Municipality were negatively correlated with latitude and positively correlated with temperature, while FED was positively correlated with latitude and negatively correlated with temperature. The FSD, FED and FFS in the central part of Harbin Municipality were the earliest, the latest and the longest, respectively, so the Pearson correlation coefficient method and the influence of longitude could not be reflected in the multiple regression. Several factors were judged by grey correlation analysis method. The longitude is significantly related to FSD, FED and FFS.